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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 020May 20, 2026

Trader File — Kevindoto

Kevindoto·live profile →
◆ Summary

Kevindoto has settled 30 bets on Polymarket at a 60.0% win rate for +$327K of net P&L, on $12.72M of total volume. 74% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 40s between fills, 26% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($12.72M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. The price-band distribution is the tell: 74% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Spread across 285 unique markets across 4 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · heavy-favorite arbitrage scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · heavy-favorite arbitrage scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,368
Unique markets entered285
Resolved bets
Open positions4
Wins / Losses
Win rate60.0%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap40sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills26.0%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour13:00456 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$63
Mean bet$1.4K
P95 bet$5.3K
Max bet$244.2K
Top 5% share71.1%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)73.9%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)5.9%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)1.0%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share10.9%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days88/ 158d span
Trades / active day45
◆ Open Positions$12.4K at risk · 4 open
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 30 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Recent alerts triggered by this wallet
Kevindoto

Kevindoto

0xcd71...d127
active 4mo ago60% WR+$327.1K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$327.1K
All time · per polymarket · curve from Mar 31

Where the edge is · win rate by category

🌍 geopolitics
100% ·6
other
69% ·48
politics
31% ·118
Portfolio Value
$855.5K
4 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate60%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor0.82
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$12.7M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets23030 resolved
Markets230
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 60% across 30 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (100% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$15.8K average position
Consistency0.82x profit factor
Edge sourceGeopolitics · 100% win rate

Recent form · last 9 resolutions

2L streak
2/9 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track Kevindoto live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Beta
···v0.1.0
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