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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 049May 20, 2026

Trader Report — Pondermint

Pondermint·live profile →
◆ Summary

Pondermint has settled 45 bets on Polymarket at a 75.6% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $7.66M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 58s between fills, 25% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($7.66M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 238 unique markets across 5 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,118
Unique markets entered238
Closed positions0
Open positions0
Wins / Losses0 / 0
Win rate75.6%
Total USDC invested$0
Total USDC recovered$0
Net PnL (closed only)+$0
ROI (closed only)
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap58sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills24.9%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour13:00331 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$31
Mean bet$221
P95 bet$975
Max bet$9.4K
Top 5% share50.7%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)13.9%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)31.8%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)2.7%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share18.8%of total notional
Both-sides rate2.0%of markets hedged
Active days27/ 42d span
Trades / active day148
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 27 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-05-2017170W/0L
2026-05-19990W/0L
2026-05-1830300W/0L
2026-05-1737370W/0L
2026-05-1623230W/0L
2026-05-1523230W/0L
2026-04-2857570W/0L
2026-04-2795950W/0L
2026-04-261141140W/0L
2026-04-2582820W/0L
2026-04-2482820W/0L
2026-04-2337370W/0L
2026-04-2235350W/0L
2026-04-211421420W/0L
2026-04-201551550W/0L
2026-04-191161160W/0L
2026-04-1870700W/0L
2026-04-172132130W/0L
2026-04-1655550W/0L
2026-04-152082080W/0L
2026-04-1441410W/0L
2026-04-1351510W/0L
2026-04-1252520W/0L
2026-04-1175750W/0L
2026-04-1034340W/0L
2026-04-091511510W/0L
2026-04-081141140W/0L
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$144.3K
All time · per polymarket
📉
15L
losing run
HIGHwhale
0x8633...a08d
270 trades
55whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 76% across 45 resolved bets
◆ Strongest edge in Other (84% WR)
Win Rate76%34/45
P&L+$144.3K
Volume$7.7M
Printing

Top Calls

CConnecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines+$177

Recent Events

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Apr 7, 26
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CategoryBetsWRP&L
Politics111247%-$304.6K
sports8367%+$15.1K
geopolitics850%-$339
Other35084%+$207
us politics330%
other150%

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 100% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 0 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+30
Total Volume+15
Activity Level+10
Total55
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track Pondermint live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
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