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Long-form investigations, monthly recaps, and research on Polymarket insiders and whales. RSS feed →
· claude · claude code
I connected Claude Code to a database of 1.3B Polymarket trades with an MCP. Here's what it found.
I had the full on-chain Polymarket ledger in Postgres but answering questions meant hand-writing SQL across 1.3B rows. So I gave Claude Code a Postgres MCP and just asked it questions in plain English. This is the build, the exact config, and what it found about who actually makes money.
· data · polymarket
Only 2% of Polymarket traders have ever made $1,000. We checked all 1.5 million wallets.
Out of 1,560,857 on-chain Polymarket wallets, just 37,629 — 2.4% — have ever cleared $1,000 in profit. Here's the full survival funnel, and how it lines up with the WSJ and Sergeenkov's 2.5M-wallet study.
· data · polymarket
Only 1 in 5 Polymarket traders ever turns a profit. We checked all 1.5 million wallets.
We aggregated realized P&L across 1,560,837 on-chain Polymarket wallets. Only 20.6% are net positive — the other ~79% never made money. Here's the full breakdown, how it lines up with the WSJ's findings, and where the winnings actually go.
· methodology · transparency
Our insider-detector lied to us about its top wallet. Here's the autopsy.
An investigation we almost published would have called a wallet a "crypto insider with 89% win rate and p = 0.00000000000018." The raw trades told a different story — 166,746 of them. This is how we caught it.
· monthly recap · insiders
Top Polymarket insiders — April 2026 recap
The most notable wallets, investigations, and market movements CrowdIntel tracked in April 2026. Monthly recap format; update the wallet cards with current numbers before publishing.
· case study · investigations
Case study — the Iran-war funding cluster
A walkthrough of how CrowdIntel identified a coordinated wallet cluster active on Middle East conflict markets. Authoring template — replace investigation details before publication.
· funding cluster · investigations
The anatomy of a Polymarket funding cluster
One wallet betting $500K on a market is interesting. Ten wallets, all funded by the same source, betting the same direction on the same market inside a 30-minute window — that's a cluster. Here's how they form, how to spot them, and why the funding trail is the hardest signal to fake.
· methodology · detection
How CrowdIntel detects Polymarket insiders
A narrative tour of the detection stack — what we look at, what triggers an investigation, and why specific parameters stay private. Companion to the methodology page.
· insider detection · market intelligence
The insider-detection stack — every tool that matters in 2026
Stocks, options, DeFi, prediction markets. A ranked list of 10 tools that actually work for detecting insider activity across asset classes — with honest notes on what each one is and isn't.
· prediction markets · polls
Why Polymarket odds beat polls
Academic research consistently shows prediction-market prices are better calibrated than polls on binary political and economic questions. Why, how we know, and what Polymarket specifically gets right.