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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 038May 20, 2026

Trader File — Jargs

◆ Summary

Jargs has settled 34 bets on Polymarket at a 64.7% win rate for +$196K of net P&L, on $5.50M of total volume. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 8s between fills, 52% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($5.50M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 467 unique markets across 4 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,992
Unique markets entered467
Resolved bets
Open positions12
Wins / Losses
Win rate64.7%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap8sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills51.7%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour19:00535 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$15
Mean bet$785
P95 bet$4.1K
Max bet$99.8K
Top 5% share64.9%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)10.9%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)63.8%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)3.2%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share6.3%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days70/ 89d span
Trades / active day57
◆ Open Positions$49.4K at risk · 12 open · 5 shown
Over@45¢$2.1Kheld 30.4d · since 4/19/2026
Hailey Baptiste@81¢$1.2Kheld 37.5d · since 4/12/2026
Flyers@30¢$2.4Kheld 35.3d · since 4/14/2026
No@88¢$498held 33.2d · since 4/17/2026
No@37¢$186held 35.3d · since 4/14/2026
Pro · Locked

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The other 7 open positions — market, side, entry price, size and hold age.

◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 30 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Jargs

Jargs

0xf164...8fa4
active 4mo ago65% WR+$195.9K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$195.9K
All time · per polymarket · curve from Apr 4

Where the edge is · win rate by category

sports
65% ·53
Portfolio Value
$554.2K
12 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate65%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$5.5M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets5034 resolved
Markets50
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 65% across 60 resolved bets
⚽ Strongest edge in sports (65% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$7.8K average position
Consistency∞x profit factor
Edge sourceSports · 65% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

1/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track Jargs live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
Live
Beta
···v0.1.0
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