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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 003May 20, 2026

Trader File — S-Works

◆ Summary

S-Works has settled 65 bets on Polymarket at a 60.0% win rate for +$2.34M of net P&L, on $164.72M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 4s between fills, 61% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($164.72M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 277 unique markets across 2 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper · both-sides hedger.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
🎯
Day Trader
In and out before resolution week.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · mixed-style trader
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,537
Unique markets entered258
Resolved bets65
Open positions0
Wins / Losses39 / 26
Win rate60.0%
Total volume$164.7M
Net PnL+$2.3M
ROI+1.4%
Avg holding time3.4h
Longest hold14.2h
Shortest hold1m
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap8sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills52.5%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour01:00528 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$28
Mean bet$2.6K
P95 bet$7.2K
Max bet$999.0K
Top 5% share87.4%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)41.6%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)41.2%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)1.0%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share12.6%of total notional
Both-sides rate5.4%of markets hedged
Active days95/ 209d span
Trades / active day42
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
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Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 30 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
S-Works

S-Works

0xee00...cea1
active 4mo ago60% WR+$2.3M PnL
Profit / Loss
+$2.3M
All time · per polymarket · curve from Apr 7

Where the edge is · win rate by category

🌍 geopolitics
84% ·25
sports
77% ·67
other
1% ·312
Portfolio Value
$794.9K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate60%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$164.7M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets531365 resolved
Markets5309
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 60% across 65 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (84% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$13.6K average position
Consistency0/60 resolved wins
Edge sourceGeopolitics · 84% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

15L streak
0/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 26, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track S-Works live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

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Raw export

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Beta
···v0.1.0
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