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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 040May 20, 2026

Trader File — Donkoo

◆ Summary

Donkoo has settled 207 bets on Polymarket at a 65.7% win rate for +$184K of net P&L, on $13.92M of total volume. 63% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 12s between fills, 48% sub-10s, active across 83% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($13.92M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. 63% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 229 unique markets across 2 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · mid-band directional bettor · both-sides hedger.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · mid-band directional bettor · both-sides hedger
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,766
Unique markets entered229
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate65.7%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap12sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills47.5%machine-tempo
Hour coverage83%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour18:00563 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$13
Mean bet$69
P95 bet$325
Max bet$1.9K
Top 5% share44.1%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)0.0%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)63.1%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)5.6%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share8.6%of total notional
Both-sides rate19.3%of markets hedged
Active days20/ 35d span
Trades / active day200
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 19 active days
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Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 19 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Donkoo

Donkoo

0x72aa...90e0
active 4mo ago66% WR+$183.8K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$183.8K
All time · per polymarket
Where the edge is · win rate by category
🌍 geopolitics
57% ·841
sports
51% ·204
Portfolio Value
$66.3K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate66%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor0.03
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$13.9M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets460207 resolved
Markets348
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

Strong win rate — 66% across 207 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (57% WR)
Behaviour
🔮
The Oracle
Specialist intel. Bets where others don't dare.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$181 average position
Consistency0.03x profit factor
Edge sourceGeopolitics · 57% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

5L streak
1/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track Donkoo live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
···v0.1.0
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