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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 046May 20, 2026

Trader File — MartyMcFox

MartyMcFox·live profile →
◆ Summary

MartyMcFox has settled 111 bets on Polymarket at a 63.1% win rate for +$153K of net P&L, on $2.82M of total volume.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($2.82M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is machine. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 1,692 unique markets across 3 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🤖
Machine
Inhuman market count. Likely automated.
Strategy verdict
tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,965
Unique markets entered1,692
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate63.1%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signaturehuman-rate execution
Median gap0sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills71.7%machine-tempo
Hour coverage79%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour19:00511 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$16
Mean bet$94
P95 bet$520
Max bet$1.9K
Top 5% share43.4%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)0.0%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)32.6%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)6.8%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share1.6%of total notional
Both-sides rate5.0%of markets hedged
Active days24/ 39d span
Trades / active day167
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 24 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 24 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Recent alerts triggered by this wallet
MartyMcFox

MartyMcFox

0x397e...3d84
active 4mo ago63% WR+$152.8K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$152.8K
All time · per polymarket · curve from Apr 6

Where the edge is · win rate by category

sports
65% ·378
Portfolio Value
$84.4K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate63%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor0.00
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$2.8M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets365111 resolved
Markets356
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

Strong win rate — 63% across 111 resolved bets
⚽ Strongest edge in sports (65% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$217 average position
Consistency0.00x profit factor
Edge sourceSports · 65% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

15L streak
0/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track MartyMcFox live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Beta
···v0.1.0
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