CrowdIntelTrader Report — aviato
aviato has settled 40 bets on Polymarket at a 75.0% win rate for +$252K of net P&L, on $23.20M of total volume. 70% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge.
Classified as a whale ($23.20M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. The price-band distribution is the tell: 70% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Spread across 249 unique markets across 8 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: tape-reading scalper.
| Date | Buys | Closed | Open | W/L | Spent | PnL | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 19 | — | 19 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | 19 | — | 19 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-18 | 22 | — | 22 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-17 | 100 | — | 100 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-16 | 83 | — | 83 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | 38 | — | 38 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 2 | — | 2 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 5 | — | 5 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 20 | — | 20 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 26 | — | 26 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 40 | — | 40 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 37 | — | 37 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 12 | — | 12 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 9 | — | 9 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 23 | — | 23 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-20 | 11 | — | 11 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-19 | 126 | — | 126 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-18 | 127 | — | 127 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-17 | 24 | — | 24 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-16 | 49 | — | 49 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 100 | — | 100 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 58 | — | 58 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-13 | 34 | — | 34 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 88 | — | 88 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 42 | — | 42 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 55 | — | 55 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-09 | 19 | — | 19 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | 19 | — | 19 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-07 | 90 | — | 90 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
botWhere the edge is · win rate by category
Profile & edge
Recent form · last 15 resolutions
Population standing — where this wallet ranks
| Market | Bet | Status | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
U US forces enter Iran by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$126 |
U US forces enter Iran by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$35 |
U US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$26 |
W Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$9 |
W Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$1 |
W Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$1 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
U US strike on Cuba by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$13 |
U US forces enter Iran by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$15 |
T Trump out as President by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$18 |
U US forces enter Iran by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$21 |
K Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$25 |
U US forces enter Iran by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$26 |
U US forces enter Iran by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$30 |
U US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$3.6K |
Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.
Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.
Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.
Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.
This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.
Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.
Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.
Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.
superbeter007 has settled 32 bets on Polymarket at a 65.6% win rate for +$135K of net P&L, on $1.59M of total volume. 91% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 71% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.
Maximus22 has settled 66 bets on Polymarket at a 72.7% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $30.29M of total volume.
Pondermint has settled 45 bets on Polymarket at a 75.6% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $7.66M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 58s between fills, 25% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.