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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 029May 20, 2026

Trader Report — CamelUp

◆ Summary

CamelUp has settled 89 bets on Polymarket at a 68.5% win rate for +$263K of net P&L, on $10.62M of total volume. 52% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($10.62M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is machine. 52% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 580 unique markets across 3 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🤖
Machine
Inhuman market count. Likely automated.
Strategy verdict
mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades4,000
Unique markets entered580
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate68.5%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signaturehuman-rate execution
Median gap6sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills55.2%machine-tempo
Hour coverage29%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour13:001,495 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$10
Mean bet$74
P95 bet$241
Max bet$10.4K
Top 5% share56.6%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)4.1%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)52.0%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)13.5%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share17.3%of total notional
Both-sides rateof markets hedged
Active days8/ 29d span
Trades / active day500
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 8 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLHold
2026-05-193933930W/0L
2026-05-186306300W/0L
2026-05-153383380W/0L
2026-04-277127120W/0L
2026-04-244804800W/0L
2026-04-236476470W/0L
2026-04-222052050W/0L
2026-04-215955950W/0L
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
CamelUp
whale
CamelUp
0x1755...5aac
Profit / Loss
+$262.8K
All time · per polymarket
45whale score
equity curve appears once recent bets resolve

Where the edge is · win rate by category

other
89% ·119
🏢 corporate
76% ·117
🔬 tech
70% ·513
💰 finance
69% ·61
Portfolio Value
$45.8K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate69%
Profit Factor0.00
Confidence87%
Population Z+5.1σ
Volume$10.6M
Avg PnL / Prediction+$3.0K
Bets41589 resolved
Markets334
Avg Position$322
Max Drawdown-$6
active 3mo ago69% WR+$262.8K PnL

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 69% across 89 resolved bets
🔬 Strongest edge in tech (70% WR)

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

15L streak
0/15 won · newest first

Population standing — where this wallet ranks

MarketBetStatusPnL
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W
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on April 6?
3 months ago
Lost-$0
W
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on April 6?
3 months ago
Lost-$0
W
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on April 6?
3 months ago
Lost-$2
W
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on April 6?
3 months ago
Lost-$3
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track CamelUp live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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