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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 014May 20, 2026

Trader File — piston777

piston777·live profile →
◆ Summary

piston777 has settled 58 bets on Polymarket at a 91.4% win rate for +$440K of net P&L, on $54.29M of total volume. 93% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($54.29M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is generalist. The price-band distribution is the tell: 93% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Across 57 markets total. 8-signal classification: heavy-favorite arbitrage scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🧭
Generalist
A few sectors, well spread.
Strategy verdict
heavy-favorite arbitrage scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,105
Unique markets entered57
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate91.4%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signaturehuman-rate execution
Median gap3sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills68.2%machine-tempo
Hour coverage71%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour03:00740 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$48
Mean bet$1.2K
P95 bet$4.0K
Max bet$306.8K
Top 5% share79.1%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)92.7%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)1.3%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)0.0%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share12.0%of total notional
Both-sides rateof markets hedged
Active days10/ 25d span
Trades / active day400
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 10 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 10 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
piston777

piston777

0x161e...6ef0
active 4mo ago91% WR+$439.9K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$439.9K
All time · per polymarket
Where the edge is · win rate by category
sports
59% ·281
Portfolio Value
$1.1M
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate91%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor0.00
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$54.3M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets12358 resolved
Markets109
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

Elite win rate — 91% across 60 resolved bets
⚽ Strongest edge in sports (59% WR)
Behaviour
🤖
The Bot
Mechanical precision. Suspiciously consistent.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$16.6K average position
Consistency0.00x profit factor
Edge sourceSports · 59% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

15L streak
0/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track piston777 live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
···v0.1.0
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