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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 022May 20, 2026

Trader File — TheVeryGoodCow

TheVeryGoodCow·live profile →
◆ Summary

TheVeryGoodCow has settled 214 bets on Polymarket at a 89.7% win rate for +$319K of net P&L, on $7.81M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 30s between fills, 31% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($7.81M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is machine. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 1,210 unique markets across 6 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper · both-sides hedger.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🤖
Machine
Inhuman market count. Likely automated.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper · both-sides hedger
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,995
Unique markets entered1,210
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate89.7%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap30sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills31.0%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour21:00476 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$29
Mean bet$216
P95 bet$989
Max bet$19.8K
Top 5% share62.8%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)53.8%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)10.1%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)1.4%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share8.5%of total notional
Both-sides rate13.3%of markets hedged
Active days27/ 41d span
Trades / active day148
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 27 active days
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Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 27 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
TheVeryGoodCow

TheVeryGoodCow

0x033f...618e
active 4mo ago90% WR+$319.3K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$319.3K
All time · per polymarket
Where the edge is · win rate by category
other
100% ·165
🏛️ us politics
89% ·43
sports
87% ·821
🎬 entertainment
64% ·74
Portfolio Value
$168.2K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate90%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor99.00
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$7.8M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets638214 resolved
Markets581
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 90% across 214 resolved bets
🏛️ Strongest edge in us-politics (89% WR)
Behaviour
🔮
The Oracle
Specialist intel. Bets where others don't dare.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$527 average position
Consistency99.00x profit factor
Edge sourceUs Politics · 89% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

3/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track TheVeryGoodCow live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Beta
···v0.1.0
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