Who is betting on "Iran leadership change by August 31?" on Polymarket?

288 unique whale wallets have placed 1266 trades on "Iran leadership change by August 31?", moving $406K in total volume. CrowdIntel tracks each trader's win rate, PnL and funding trail.

What does whale sentiment say about "Iran leadership change by August 31?"?

Whale buy-side volume is 69% of total traded volume on this market ($279K buys vs $127K sells). This reflects capital flow, not final odds.

How does CrowdIntel detect insider trading on Polymarket?

A gated 0–100 insider score — a trade only scores if the wallet bought an outcome the market priced at 35c or below. Past that gate, seven components set the number: entry-depth tier, wallet skill z-score and fresh-wallet concentration, against four penalties for bot behaviour, negative PnL, oversized funding clusters and infrastructure funders. Weights are fit to measured edge — win rate minus entry price — across roughly 6,800 resolved alerts, not hand-tuned. Signals that measured negative on resolved outcomes, including bet size, market category and timing clusters, were removed rather than down-weighted. Trades scoring ≥65 are flagged as potential insider activity.

Back to Trending

Iran leadership change by August 31?

View on Polymarket geopoliticsActiveWhales BULLISH(24)

Volume

$406,271

Total Bets

1266

Unique Traders

288

Avg Price

57c

Buy / Sell

74%/26%

Alerts

Volume Sentiment

YES 278.9K

NO 127.4K

Smart Money Intelligence

Whale Sentiment

BULLISH

24 whales

Whale Volume

55.2K

YES 89% / NO 11%

Avg Holder WR

73%

15 with data

First trade: 11 days agoLast: 29 minutes ago

Top Holders (Yes)

$16,15798% WR+$43,358

4GA

gatou

$13,900100% WR-$1,423

$10,84262% WR+$721,728

8R7

R79dgahr

$8,46078% WR+$106,852

9AN

anoin123whale

$8,03554% WR-$5,400,809

100X

0x122Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed-1782168978900

$7,51255% WR+$152,937

Top Holders (No)

0x122Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed-1782168978900

$7,37455% WR+$152,937

4HA

Haradwaithwhale

$2,15856% WR-$237,530

$1,24366% WR+$146,783

7RO

rocky42017whale

$1,01539% WR+$9,876

WalletScoreSideSizeWhen

0xd5c1…5280

MED 40NO$6,390about 2 hours ago

0xd5c1…5280

MED 40NO$9,991about 2 hours ago

0xd5c1…5280

MED 40NO$9,724about 2 hours ago

0xd5c1…5280

MED 40NO$7,500about 3 hours ago

0xd5c1…5280

MED 40NO$10,000about 3 hours ago

0xd5c1…5280

MED 40NO$10,000about 3 hours ago

0xd5c1…5280insider

HIGH 50YES$1,798about 3 hours ago

0x753b…9f35insider

MED 25YES$1,632about 3 hours ago

0x54a7…881b

HIGH 50NO$1,400about 3 hours ago

0xb8ad…ff58

HIGH 55NO$280about 3 hours ago

0xe234…304ainsider

MED 35YES$471about 3 hours ago

0xb1ca…1705

HIGH 50NO$7,386about 3 hours ago

0x2a01…6397

MED 40NO$938about 3 hours ago

0xb1ca…1705

MED 40NO$937about 3 hours ago

0x8f42…b88finsider

HIGH 65YES$366about 3 hours ago

0xdf17…97d1

MED 40NO$190about 6 hours ago

0x9d73…216b

HIGH 50NO$124about 7 hours ago

0x9d73…216b

HIGH 50NO$124about 7 hours ago

0x6747…a64f

HIGH 50NO$287about 7 hours ago

0x9d73…216b

HIGH 50NO$125about 8 hours ago

0x5cd5…ac33

MED 40NO$424about 12 hours ago

0x5715…1616insider

MED 25YES$130about 16 hours ago

0xad52…11acinsider

MED 25YES$112about 18 hours ago

0x122c…fbedinsider

MED 35YES$140about 18 hours ago

0x59a5…afc8

HIGH 55NO$8811 day ago

0xb8ad…ff58

HIGH 55NO$2841 day ago

0x59a5…afc8

HIGH 55NO$8191 day ago

0x2a01…6397

HIGH 55NO$8491 day ago

0x2a01…6397

HIGH 55NO$1031 day ago

0x2a01…6397

HIGH 55NO$1111 day ago

0x2a01…6397

HIGH 55NO$8441 day ago

0x97cb…c910insider

MED 35YES$2001 day ago

0xe472…e7eb

MED 40NO$2,0081 day ago

0x27a3…9a72insider

MED 40YES$1141 day ago

0x753b…9f35insider

MED 25YES$3001 day ago

0xd5c1…5280insider

HIGH 50YES$2941 day ago

0xc3db…0f98insider

MED 40YES$1481 day ago

0x97cb…c910insider

MED 35YES$1653 days ago

0xc3db…0f98insider

MED 40YES$3637 days ago

0xd7f1…73cdinsider

MED 25YES$1008 days ago

0xd7f1…73cdinsider

MED 25YES$14410 days ago

WalletSidePriceSizeTime

0x510f…a43cNO94¢$2829 minutes ago

0xece7…3673NO94¢$2829 minutes ago

0xece7…3673NO94¢$26532 minutes ago

0x5ccf…79d7YES6¢$1632 minutes ago

0xad52…11acYES6¢$11534 minutes ago

0x6b1c…5fe8YES6¢$034 minutes ago

0x4656…41d7NO94¢$1434 minutes ago

0x6b1c…5fe8YES6¢$134 minutes ago

0xb1e2…666dYES6¢$134 minutes ago

0x6b1c…5fe8YES6¢$134 minutes ago

0x4ffe…9f71YES6¢$1234 minutes ago

0x5ccf…79d7YES6¢$9834 minutes ago

0x6b1c…5fe8YES6¢$1about 1 hour ago

0xb1e2…666dYES7¢$1about 1 hour ago

0x6b1c…5fe8YES7¢$0about 1 hour ago

0x4656…41d7NO93¢$14about 1 hour ago

0x4ffe…9f71YES7¢$13about 1 hour ago

0xff7c…b233YES7¢$17about 1 hour ago

0xd9fe…db0dNO93¢$8about 1 hour ago

0x6b1c…5fe8YES7¢$0about 1 hour ago

About this market

288 whale wallets have traded "Iran leadership change by August 31?" on Polymarket, moving $406K in CrowdIntel-tracked volume across 1266 recorded trades. Buy-side orders account for 69% of that volume — a snapshot of how whale capital is positioned, not the market's settled odds.

The largest tracked position belongs to sharrdio at $74K. CrowdIntel has flagged 41 trades on this market as potential insider activity. Every whale, funding source, win rate and PnL figure is traced on-chain from Polygon, so the full trader leaderboard for this market is independently verifiable on CrowdIntel — free, no login required.

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