CrowdIntelTrader Report — geniusMC: the volume scalper
At 88.9% on 90 resolved bets and +$2.27M of realized P&L, geniusMC reads like an insider at a glance. The trade history says otherwise. Almost the entire $97.9M of volume sits on heavy-favorite outcomes priced at 95+ cents — Pistons not finishing top seed, Wolverines covering big spreads, Maple Leafs on the moneyline. This isn't private information; it's the shape of a sophisticated odds-grinder converting near-certain spreads into compounding profit at enormous scale.
The edge is structural, not informational. geniusMC concentrates in sports markets where the order book misprices high-probability outcomes by 1–3 cents. Each individual bet returns thin — a $5,500 ticket at 99.8 cents nets about $11 — but stacked across hundreds of similar tickets and tens of millions in turnover, it compounds into a multi-million-dollar book. The 8-signal suspicion model on this wallet registers a whale (large stake, high volume) but does not flag insider patterns: there's no funding cluster, no pre-announcement timing edge, no scope-narrow win rate that breaks from the wallet's global pattern. They are exactly what they look like in the data: a professional grinder with deep capital and rigorous selection — not an information leak.
| Date | Buys | Closed | Open | W/L | Spent | PnL | ROI | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | 3 | — | 3 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-13 | 4 | — | 4 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-05 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-04 | 216 | — | 216 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-03 | 30 | — | 30 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-02 | 40 | — | 40 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | 56 | — | 56 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 75 | 6 | 69 | 3W/3L | $6.4K | -$216 | -3.4% | — |
| 2026-03-30 | 325 | 8 | 317 | 8W/0L | $338.4K | -$289 | -0.1% | — |
| 2026-03-29 | 129 | 17 | 112 | 11W/6L | $222.2K | -$213.0K | -95.9% | — |
| 2026-03-28 | 300 | 166 | 134 | 3W/163L | $373.2K | -$220.9K | -59.2% | — |
| 2026-03-27 | 1023 | 925 | 98 | 8W/917L | $244.5K | -$147.7K | -60.4% | — |
| 2026-03-26 | 782 | 164 | 618 | 0W/164L | $376.6K | -$376.6K | -100.0% | — |
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$285.5K at riskTop Calls
Recent Events
P&L Calendar · 90 days
Evidence
whaleStats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 19, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.
Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.
Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.
Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.
This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.
Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.
Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.
Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.
superbeter007 has settled 32 bets on Polymarket at a 65.6% win rate for +$135K of net P&L, on $1.59M of total volume. 91% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 71% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.
Maximus22 has settled 66 bets on Polymarket at a 72.7% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $30.29M of total volume.
Pondermint has settled 45 bets on Polymarket at a 75.6% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $7.66M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 58s between fills, 25% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.