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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 049May 20, 2026

Trader File — Pondermint

Pondermint·live profile →
◆ Summary

Pondermint has settled 45 bets on Polymarket at a 75.6% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $7.66M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 58s between fills, 25% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($7.66M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 238 unique markets across 5 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,118
Unique markets entered238
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate75.6%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap58sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills24.9%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour13:00331 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$31
Mean bet$221
P95 bet$975
Max bet$9.4K
Top 5% share50.7%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)13.9%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)31.8%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)2.7%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share18.8%of total notional
Both-sides rate2.0%of markets hedged
Active days27/ 42d span
Trades / active day148
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 27 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 27 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Pondermint

Pondermint

0x8633...a08d
active 4mo ago76% WR+$144.3K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$144.3K
All time · per polymarket
Where the edge is · win rate by category
other
84% ·350
sports
67% ·83
politics
47% ·1112
🌍 geopolitics
0% ·85
Portfolio Value
$197.7K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate76%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$7.7M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets27045 resolved
Markets268
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 76% across 60 resolved bets
⚽ Strongest edge in sports (67% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$13.5K average position
Consistency∞x profit factor
Edge sourceSports · 67% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

5L streak
1/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track Pondermint live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
Live
Beta
···v0.1.0
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