CrowdIntelDefinition
What is Prediction market?
A market where participants trade contracts whose payout depends on the outcome of a future event — producing prices that aggregate crowd beliefs into probability estimates.
In detail
A prediction market lets users buy and sell shares in 'yes' or 'no' outcomes of real-world events — elections, sports, economics, climate. Share prices between 0 and settle at 1 (win) or 0 (lose) when the event resolves, making the mid-market price an implicit probability. Platforms like Polymarket run prediction markets on-chain with USDC collateral, so every trade is verifiable. The aggregated prices often outperform polls and expert forecasts because participants have skin in the game.
How CrowdIntel measures it
CrowdIntel ingests every on-chain Polymarket trade and builds per-market dashboards showing whale sentiment (buy vs sell volume), top holders, price history, and insider score distribution. This turns raw prediction-market data into actionable intelligence about who believes what, with how much conviction, and at what prior accuracy.
Frequently asked
How do prediction markets produce probability estimates?
A contract trading at means the market collectively assigns 62% probability to the outcome. The price updates continuously as buyers and sellers react to information; the consensus probability is simply the last trade price.
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
Academic research consistently shows prediction markets outperform polls for binary political and economic questions, especially close to event resolution. Skin-in-the-game pricing filters noise better than stated preference.
Why does Polymarket use blockchain for prediction markets?
On-chain settlement makes every trade and resolution verifiable, removes custodial risk (users hold their own USDC until trade), and enables independent analytics like CrowdIntel without platform cooperation.
Related terms
- Polymarket whale
A Polymarket wallet that trades significantly larger positions than the median user — typically $5,000+ per bet or $100,000+ lifetime volume.
- Polymarket insider
A Polymarket trader who bets with non-public information or against the consensus and wins at rates statistical models cannot explain by skill alone.
- Smart money (Polymarket)
Wallets with proven track records of winning more than random chance — used as a leading indicator of where prices will move on Polymarket.
- Wallet clustering
The process of grouping blockchain wallets that are likely operated by the same entity, using shared funding sources, timing correlation, and behavior similarity.