CrowdIntelCrowdIntel reference
Polymarket & prediction-market glossary
Every term used across CrowdIntel — whale, insider, funding cluster, Bayesian win rate, scope edge, p-value — defined from scratch with the math behind it and how we measure it on-chain.
Polymarket insider
A Polymarket trader who bets with non-public information or against the consensus and wins at rates statistical models cannot explain by skill alone.
Polymarket whale
A Polymarket wallet that trades significantly larger positions than the median user — typically $5,000+ per bet or $100,000+ lifetime volume.
Prediction market
A market where participants trade contracts whose payout depends on the outcome of a future event — producing prices that aggregate crowd beliefs into probability estimates.
Funding cluster
A group of Polymarket wallets that received their initial USDC from the same source address and often coordinate trades — a signature of Sybil behavior or organized insider activity.
Bayesian win rate
A shrinkage estimate of a wallet's true win rate that combines raw wins-over-bets with a prior — preventing a wallet with 9 wins out of 10 bets from being treated as a 90% sharpshooter.
P-value (trading)
The probability that an observed win rate could occur by chance alone if the trader had no edge — used to separate genuine skill from lucky streaks.
Smart money (Polymarket)
Wallets with proven track records of winning more than random chance — used as a leading indicator of where prices will move on Polymarket.
Wallet clustering
The process of grouping blockchain wallets that are likely operated by the same entity, using shared funding sources, timing correlation, and behavior similarity.
Polymarket whale tracker
A tool that monitors large Polymarket wallets and surfaces their trades in real time — used by traders to follow smart money and detect insider activity.
On-chain trading analysis
The practice of drawing trading insights directly from blockchain transaction data rather than exchange-reported metrics — enabling verifiable, un-gameable analytics.
Scope edge
The gap between a wallet's win rate inside a narrow scope (one topic, one category, one market) and its global win rate — a signal that the wallet has information advantage in that specific scope.
Insider trading on Polymarket
Placing Polymarket bets using information not reflected in current prices — detected statistically via abnormal win rates, timing clusters near news, and coordinated wallet activity.