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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 004May 20, 2026

Trader Report — YatSen

◆ Summary

YatSen has settled 106 bets on Polymarket at a 72.6% win rate for +$2.29M of net P&L, on $336.46M of total volume. 67% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 12s between fills, 46% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($336.46M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. The price-band distribution is the tell: 67% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Spread across 148 unique markets across 6 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,850
Unique markets entered148
Closed positions1,684
Open positions13
Wins / Losses7 / 1012
Win rate72.6%
Total USDC invested$1.8M
Total USDC recovered$493.1K
Net PnL (closed only)-$1.3M
ROI (closed only)-72.2%
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap12sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills46.3%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour09:00543 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$5
Mean bet$2.6K
P95 bet$10.0K
Max bet$304.0K
Top 5% share88.1%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)66.8%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)16.9%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)3.0%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share12.0%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days49/ 60d span
Trades / active day82
◆ Open Positions$402.6K at risk · 13 open
No@90¢$114.2Kheld 56.6d · since 3/24/2026
JD Gaming@57¢$281held 38.6d · since 4/11/2026
No@80¢$51.9Kheld 75.1d · since 3/6/2026
No@49¢$4.1Kheld 57.0d · since 3/24/2026
No@96¢$133.5Kheld 59.0d · since 3/22/2026
No@79¢$3.8Kheld 58.0d · since 3/23/2026
Yes@60¢$11.1Kheld 56.7d · since 3/24/2026
Yes@68¢$2.5Kheld 56.7d · since 3/24/2026
No@90¢$24.0Kheld 52.5d · since 3/28/2026
No@89¢$46.0Kheld 57.7d · since 3/23/2026
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-05-02110W/0L
2026-04-1712120W/0L
2026-04-16220W/0L
2026-04-13440W/0L
2026-04-1247470W/0L
2026-04-1142420W/0L
2026-04-10770W/0L
2026-04-0984840W/0L
2026-04-0865650W/0L
2026-04-06110W/0L
2026-04-05121021W/9L$3.8K-$3.8K-99.2%
2026-04-04220W/2L$3.4K-$3.4K-100.0%
2026-04-03330W/0L
2026-04-012111W/0L$122.8K+$372+0.3%
2026-03-31660W/0L
2026-03-30141130W/1L$1.6K-$1.6K-100.0%
2026-03-29110W/1L$66.7K-$66.7K-100.0%
2026-03-284221W/1L$2.2K-$504-23.2%
2026-03-275140W/1L$532-$532-100.0%
2026-03-265320W/3L$6.6K-$6.6K-100.0%
2026-03-252110W/1L$1-$1-100.0%
2026-03-248171W/0L$53.1K+$538+1.0%
2026-03-23990W/0L
2026-03-22524930W/49L$18.1K-$18.1K-100.0%
2026-03-2147473W/44L$460.2K-$235.5K-51.2%
2026-03-20817650W/76L$292.7K-$292.7K-100.0%
2026-03-19252410W/24L$232.4K-$232.4K-100.0%
2026-03-1810935705230W/570L$242.2K-$242.2K-100.0%
2026-03-17583285550W/28L$23.4K-$23.4K-100.0%
2026-03-162022020W/202L$95.5K-$95.5K-100.0%
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$2.3M
All time · per polymarket
📉
7L
losing run
HIGHwhale
0x5bff...ffbe
620 trades
65whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 73% across 106 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (100% WR)
Win Rate73%77/106
P&L+$2.3M
Volume$336.5M
Printing

Open Now

$3.7M at risk
+8 more

Top Calls

TTennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines+$70.4K
IIowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators+$55.3K
BBased FDV above $75M one day after launch?+$584
WWill Trump visit China by March 31?+$538
UUS forces enter Iran by March 31?+$372

Recent Events

?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
L
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Apr 5, 26
+$9WIN
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
CategoryBetsWRP&L
Politics14345650%-$950.1K
Other13657%-$530.8K
Crypto25615%+$93.4K
sports2053%+$78.3K
Finance19421%+$25.1K
tech550%-$1.0K
geopolitics9100%+$1.0K
us politics950%+$171

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 100% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 1 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+30
Total Volume+15
Bet Size+10
Activity Level+10
Total65
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track YatSen live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
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