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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 004May 20, 2026

Trader File — YatSen

◆ Summary

YatSen has settled 106 bets on Polymarket at a 72.6% win rate for +$2.29M of net P&L, on $336.46M of total volume. 67% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 12s between fills, 46% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($336.46M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. The price-band distribution is the tell: 67% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Spread across 148 unique markets across 6 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
🧘
Swing Trader
Patient enough to let trades breathe.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🧭
Generalist
A few sectors, well spread.
Strategy verdict
automated · mixed-style trader · both-sides hedger
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,666
Unique markets entered83
Resolved bets106
Open positions13
Wins / Losses77 / 29
Win rate72.6%
Total volume$336.5M
Net PnL+$2.3M
ROI+0.7%
Avg holding time2.6d (2.6 days)
Longest hold156.1d
Shortest hold4.2h
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap8sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills52.1%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour01:00592 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$30
Mean bet$3.7K
P95 bet$12.7K
Max bet$573.7K
Top 5% share85.9%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)41.6%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)48.4%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)2.4%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share28.4%of total notional
Both-sides rate15.9%of markets hedged
Active days105/ 545d span
Trades / active day38
◆ Open Positions$402.6K at risk · 13 open · 5 shown
No@90¢$114.2Kheld 63.3d · since 3/24/2026
JD Gaming@57¢$281held 45.3d · since 4/11/2026
No@80¢$51.9Kheld 81.8d · since 3/6/2026
Pro · Locked

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The other 8 open positions — market, side, entry price, size and hold age.

◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 30 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
YatSen

YatSen

0x5bff...ffbe
active 4mo ago73% WR+$2.3M PnL
Profit / Loss
+$2.3M
All time · per polymarket · curve from Mar 30

Where the edge is · win rate by category

🌍 geopolitics
100% ·9
sports
53% ·20
politics
50% ·143456
🏛️ us politics
50% ·9
Portfolio Value
$3.7M
13 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate73%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor44.52
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$336.5M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets620106 resolved
Markets605
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 73% across 106 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (100% WR)
Behaviour
🔮
The Oracle
Specialist intel. Bets where others don't dare.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$221K average position
Consistency44.52x profit factor
Edge sourceGeopolitics · 100% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

2/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 26, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track YatSen live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
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