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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 042May 20, 2026

Trader Report — XAEA12Archangel

XAEA12Archangel·live profile →
◆ Summary

XAEA12Archangel has settled 103 bets on Polymarket at a 72.8% win rate for +$173K of net P&L, on $277.11M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 52s between fills, 27% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($277.11M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is generalist. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Across 55 markets total. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🧭
Generalist
A few sectors, well spread.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,553
Unique markets entered55
Closed positions0
Open positions0
Wins / Losses0 / 0
Win rate72.8%
Total USDC invested$0
Total USDC recovered$0
Net PnL (closed only)+$0
ROI (closed only)
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap52sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills27.4%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour09:00393 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$1
Mean bet$111
P95 bet$230
Max bet$46.1K
Top 5% share90.9%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)53.3%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)2.0%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)12.8%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share19.6%of total notional
Both-sides rateof markets hedged
Active days12/ 27d span
Trades / active day333
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 12 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-05-2014140W/0L
2026-05-1947470W/0L
2026-05-1884840W/0L
2026-05-1742420W/0L
2026-05-1624240W/0L
2026-05-151051050W/0L
2026-04-282792790W/0L
2026-04-275695690W/0L
2026-04-2652520W/0L
2026-04-254994990W/0L
2026-04-244804800W/0L
2026-04-233583580W/0L
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$172.6K
All time · per polymarket
HIGHwhale
0xfbfd...0029
510 trades
55whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 73% across 103 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (60% WR)
Win Rate73%75/103
P&L+$172.6K
Volume$277.1M
Printing

Top Calls

UUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?+$1.2K
UUS forces enter Iran by March 31?+$193
KKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?+$174

Recent Events

U
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Apr 5, 26
+$193WIN
U
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Apr 5, 26
-$510LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
U
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Apr 1, 26
+$1.2KWIN
W
Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by March 31?
Apr 1, 26
-$8LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
CategoryBetsWRP&L
Politics12623050%-$4.3M
Other21110%-$30.3K
finance8050%+$2.8K
other40%-$1.5K
geopolitics1660%+$1.0K
Crypto6250%+$428
Finance603%+$110
tech70%

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 91% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 11 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+30
Total Volume+15
Activity Level+10
Total55
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track XAEA12Archangel live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
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