Live
◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 041May 20, 2026

Trader Report — TradeDeficitArchitect

TradeDeficitArchitect·live profile →
◆ Summary

TradeDeficitArchitect has settled 197 bets on Polymarket at a 61.4% win rate for +$174K of net P&L, on $8.54M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 28s between fills, 36% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($8.54M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 451 unique markets across 5 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,165
Unique markets entered451
Closed positions305
Open positions4
Wins / Losses2 / 267
Win rate61.4%
Total USDC invested$45.2K
Total USDC recovered$14.6K
Net PnL (closed only)-$30.7K
ROI (closed only)-67.8%
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap28sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills36.3%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour01:00416 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$14
Mean bet$178
P95 bet$852
Max bet$12.6K
Top 5% share64.0%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)42.1%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)21.7%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)3.3%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share5.7%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days33/ 69d span
Trades / active day121
◆ Open Positions$12.6K at risk · 4 open
No@67¢$1.3Kheld 42.3d · since 4/7/2026
Yes@99¢$10.1Kheld 42.3d · since 4/7/2026
Yes@85¢$78held 42.3d · since 4/7/2026
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-04-2511110W/0L
2026-04-13330W/0L
2026-04-12990W/0L
2026-04-08110W/0L
2026-04-0738380W/0L
2026-04-0433330W/0L
2026-04-0351510W/0L
2026-03-28110W/0L
2026-03-279680162W/78L$9.0K-$4.5K-50.2%
2026-03-1819190W/0L
2026-03-15303312720W/31L$234-$234-100.0%
2026-03-149926730W/26L$2.2K-$2.2K-100.0%
2026-03-13110W/0L
2026-03-12990W/0L
2026-03-11110W/0L
2026-03-108211710W/11L$346-$346-100.0%
2026-03-097319540W/19L$1.3K-$1.3K-100.0%
2026-03-08330W/0L
2026-03-07110W/0L
2026-03-0626260W/0L
2026-03-05749650W/9L$1.5K-$1.5K-100.0%
2026-03-0467916780W/1L$50-$50-100.0%
2026-03-0331043060W/4L$391-$391-100.0%
2026-03-02525794460W/79L$5.7K-$5.7K-100.0%
2026-03-0114140W/0L
2026-02-22660W/0L
2026-02-21110W/0L
2026-02-20512490W/2L$1.5K-$1.5K-100.0%
2026-02-1922612250W/1L$110-$110-100.0%
2026-02-18646580W/6L$5.6K-$5.6K-100.0%
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$173.9K
All time · per polymarket
MEDIUMwhale
0x477f...19aa
1470 trades
40whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 61% across 197 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (100% WR)
Win Rate61%121/197
P&L+$173.9K
Volume$8.5M
Printing

Open Now

$121.5K at risk
3L streak
recent

Top Calls

WWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?+$10
WWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?+$2

Recent Events

?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
W
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?
Apr 1, 26
+$2WIN
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
W
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Apr 1, 26
+$10WIN
?
Mar 30, 26
$0LOSS
CategoryBetsWRP&L
Politics208346%+$128.2K
Other45514%+$45.5K
Crypto7624%-$9.3K
geopolitics5100%+$15

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 100% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 13 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+15
Total Volume+15
Activity Level+10
Total40
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track TradeDeficitArchitect live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
Live
Beta
···v0.1.0

CrowdIntel needs a newer browser

Your device is on iOS 15 or older. CrowdIntel uses features (color-mix, WebGL2, modern auth) that require iOS 16+ / Safari 16+.

iPhone 7 maxes out at iOS 15, so the site can't render here. Open CrowdIntel on a desktop browser or a newer phone.

crowdintel.xyz

◆ legacy browser fallback