Live
◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 028May 20, 2026

Trader Report — stingo43

◆ Summary

stingo43 has settled 53 bets on Polymarket at a 81.1% win rate for +$269K of net P&L, on $4.79M of total volume. 60% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 83% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($4.79M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is machine. 60% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 775 unique markets across 2 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🤖
Machine
Inhuman market count. Likely automated.
Strategy verdict
automated · mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades4,000
Unique markets entered775
Closed positions0
Open positions0
Wins / Losses0 / 0
Win rate81.1%
Total USDC invested$0
Total USDC recovered$0
Net PnL (closed only)+$0
ROI (closed only)
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap0sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills83.5%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour21:00266 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$4
Mean bet$19
P95 bet$87
Max bet$720
Top 5% share46.2%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)0.0%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)59.5%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)32.3%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share2.6%of total notional
Both-sides rate2.7%of markets hedged
Active days12/ 11d span
Trades / active day333
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 12 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-04-241631630W/0L
2026-04-233073070W/0L
2026-04-224404400W/0L
2026-04-214284280W/0L
2026-04-204974970W/0L
2026-04-193023020W/0L
2026-04-184684680W/0L
2026-04-172952950W/0L
2026-04-163433430W/0L
2026-04-152822820W/0L
2026-04-142392390W/0L
2026-04-132362360W/0L
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$269.2K
All time · per polymarket
📉
9L
losing run
HIGHwhale
0x0006...8c63
245 trades
50whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 81% across 53 resolved bets
◆ Strongest edge in other (100% WR)
Win Rate81%43/53
P&L+$269.2K
Volume$4.8M
Printing

Top Calls

BBitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET+$21
BBNB Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET+$6

Recent Events

?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
H
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
Apr 7, 26
-$15LOSS
?
Apr 7, 26
$0LOSS
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
Apr 7, 26
+$21WIN
CategoryBetsWRP&L
other70100%+$4.2K
crypto34456%-$425
Crypto4100%+$352

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 100% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 0 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+30
Total Volume+10
Activity Level+10
Total50
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track stingo43 live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
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