Live
◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 005May 20, 2026

Trader Report — scottilicious

scottilicious·live profile →
◆ Summary

scottilicious has settled 72 bets on Polymarket at a 62.5% win rate for +$1.54M of net P&L, on $63.52M of total volume. 64% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 14s between fills, 45% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($63.52M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. The price-band distribution is the tell: 64% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Spread across 235 unique markets across 4 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,087
Unique markets entered235
Closed positions191
Open positions35
Wins / Losses2 / 7
Win rate62.5%
Total USDC invested$828.8K
Total USDC recovered$271.4K
Net PnL (closed only)-$557.9K
ROI (closed only)-67.3%
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap14sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills45.0%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour16:00681 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$65
Mean bet$2.8K
P95 bet$13.9K
Max bet$299.9K
Top 5% share63.2%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)64.0%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)1.9%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)0.6%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share6.3%of total notional
Both-sides rate2.9%of markets hedged
Active days105/ 147d span
Trades / active day38
◆ Open Positions$459.2K at risk · 35 open
Yes@93¢$2.1Kheld 41.4d · since 4/8/2026
Yes@98¢$12.0Kheld 42.2d · since 4/7/2026
Yes@100¢$20.0Kheld 42.2d · since 4/7/2026
No@92¢$9.2Kheld 48.2d · since 4/1/2026
No@97¢$48.1Kheld 48.2d · since 4/1/2026
Yes@88¢$17.7Kheld 32.6d · since 4/17/2026
No@96¢$3.0Kheld 33.2d · since 4/16/2026
Yes@98¢$882held 38.9d · since 4/11/2026
No@84¢$191held 50.4d · since 3/30/2026
No@98¢$68.1Kheld 64.5d · since 3/16/2026
Yes@99¢$3.5Kheld 38.9d · since 4/11/2026
No@97¢$3.9Kheld 68.2d · since 3/12/2026
No@83¢$77.9Kheld 58.3d · since 3/22/2026
No@96¢$6.4Kheld 38.9d · since 4/11/2026
Yes@36¢$717held 33.9d · since 4/16/2026
Yes@97¢$4.5Kheld 38.9d · since 4/11/2026
No@63¢$3.1Kheld 58.3d · since 3/22/2026
No@74¢$1.7Kheld 48.2d · since 4/1/2026
No@97¢$3.0Kheld 71.9d · since 3/9/2026
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-05-18110W/0L
2026-05-1617170W/0L
2026-04-28110W/0L
2026-04-25110W/0L
2026-04-2410100W/0L
2026-04-22110W/0L
2026-04-21770W/0L
2026-04-20220W/0L
2026-04-19990W/0L
2026-04-1816160W/0L
2026-04-1714140W/0L
2026-04-1612120W/0L
2026-04-1360600W/0L
2026-04-1231310W/0L
2026-04-1176760W/0L
2026-04-10880W/0L
2026-04-0831310W/0L
2026-04-0737370W/0L
2026-04-06110W/0L
2026-04-05440W/0L
2026-04-0316160W/0L
2026-04-02330W/0L
2026-04-0115150W/0L
2026-03-31770W/0L
2026-03-30220W/0L
2026-03-29220W/0L
2026-03-28220W/0L
2026-03-27440W/0L
2026-03-2611471W/3L$7.8K-$4.5K-57.3%
2026-03-257521W/4L$15.5K-$12.5K-80.4%
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$1.5M
All time · per polymarket
📉
11L
losing run
MEDIUMwhale
0x000d...758e
829 trades
40whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 63% across 72 resolved bets
◆ Strongest edge in Finance (100% WR)
Win Rate63%45/72
P&L+$1.5M
Volume$63.5M
Printing

Open Now

$3.7M at risk
+30 more

Top Calls

KKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?+$1.2K
WWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?+$866
WWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?+$328

Recent Events

W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Apr 1, 26
-$66LOSS
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Apr 1, 26
-$38LOSS
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Apr 1, 26
-$25LOSS
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Apr 1, 26
-$15LOSS
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Apr 1, 26
-$200LOSS
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Apr 1, 26
-$120LOSS
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Apr 1, 26
-$16LOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Apr 1, 26
-$1.2KLOSS
?
Apr 1, 26
$0LOSS
CategoryBetsWRP&L
Politics124681%-$411.9K
Other605%-$96.6K
geopolitics5648%+$10.7K
Finance65100%+$4.5K
us politics260%-$1.2K
other933%-$255
Crypto980%

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 94% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 20 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+15
Total Volume+15
Activity Level+10
Total40
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track scottilicious live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
Live
Beta
···v0.1.0

CrowdIntel needs a newer browser

Your device is on iOS 15 or older. CrowdIntel uses features (color-mix, WebGL2, modern auth) that require iOS 16+ / Safari 16+.

iPhone 7 maxes out at iOS 15, so the site can't render here. Open CrowdIntel on a desktop browser or a newer phone.

crowdintel.xyz

◆ legacy browser fallback