CrowdIntelTrader Report — operationcastle
operationcastle has settled 51 bets on Polymarket at a 60.8% win rate for +$535K of net P&L, on $14.88M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 4s between fills, 61% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.
Classified as a whale ($14.88M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is generalist. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Across 72 markets total. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.
| Date | Buys | Closed | Open | W/L | Spent | PnL | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 4 | — | 4 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 11 | — | 11 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 10 | — | 10 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-20 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-16 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 43 | — | 43 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 59 | — | 59 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-13 | 191 | — | 191 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 94 | — | 94 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 6 | — | 6 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-07 | 74 | — | 74 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | 10 | — | 10 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-28 | 3 | — | 3 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-25 | 7 | — | 7 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-24 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 0W/8L | $2.9K | -$2.9K | — |
| 2026-03-23 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0W/6L | $884 | -$884 | — |
| 2026-03-22 | 69 | 3 | 66 | 1W/2L | $6.6K | -$4.8K | — |
| 2026-03-21 | 488 | 10 | 478 | 0W/10L | $780 | -$780 | — |
| 2026-03-20 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0W/2L | $3.8K | -$3.8K | — |
| 2026-03-19 | 2389 | 12 | 2377 | 1W/11L | $10.1K | -$8.4K | — |
| 2026-03-18 | 48 | 5 | 43 | 0W/5L | $1.8K | -$1.8K | — |
| 2026-03-16 | 27 | 1 | 26 | 0W/1L | $48 | -$48 | — |
| 2026-03-11 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 0W/1L | $1.8K | -$1.8K | — |
| 2026-03-09 | 82 | — | 82 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
whaleWhere the edge is · win rate by category
Profile & edge
Recent form · last 15 resolutions
Population standing — where this wallet ranks
| Market | Bet | Status | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
W Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$1.9K |
W Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? 3 months ago | — | Won | +$125 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
S Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5) 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$2.5K |
W Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? 3 months ago | — | Lost | -$2.6K |
Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.
Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.
Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.
Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.
This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.
Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.
Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.
Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.
superbeter007 has settled 32 bets on Polymarket at a 65.6% win rate for +$135K of net P&L, on $1.59M of total volume. 91% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 71% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.
Maximus22 has settled 66 bets on Polymarket at a 72.7% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $30.29M of total volume.
Pondermint has settled 45 bets on Polymarket at a 75.6% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $7.66M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 58s between fills, 25% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.