CrowdIntelTrader Report — Karajan
Karajan has settled 59 bets on Polymarket at a 71.2% win rate for +$335K of net P&L, on $96.20M of total volume. 78% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 95% sub-10s, active across 88% of UTC hours.
Classified as a whale ($96.20M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is machine. The price-band distribution is the tell: 78% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Spread across 592 unique markets across 5 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · heavy-favorite arbitrage scalper.
| Date | Buys | Closed | Open | W/L | Spent | PnL | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 93 | — | 93 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 64 | — | 64 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 206 | — | 206 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-19 | 5 | — | 5 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-18 | 8 | — | 8 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-17 | 39 | — | 39 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 38 | — | 38 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 1470 | — | 1470 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 5 | — | 5 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 51 | — | 51 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-09 | 2 | — | 2 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-07 | 20 | — | 20 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-06 | 35 | — | 35 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-04 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 0W/6L | $12.8K | -$12.8K | — |
| 2026-04-03 | 1 | 1 | — | 0W/1L | $5 | -$5 | — |
| 2026-04-01 | 8 | — | 8 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-30 | 5 | 5 | — | 0W/5L | $417 | -$417 | — |
| 2026-03-27 | 27 | — | 27 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-23 | 68 | — | 68 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-22 | 4 | 4 | — | 0W/4L | $1.5K | -$1.5K | — |
| 2026-03-20 | 8 | — | 8 | 0W/0L | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | 456 | 3 | 453 | 0W/3L | $8.5K | -$8.5K | — |
botWhere the edge is · win rate by category
Profile & edge
Recent form · last 15 resolutions
Population standing — where this wallet ranks
| Market | Bet | Status | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
W Will FC Juárez win on 2026-04-03? 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
W Will FC Juárez win on 2026-04-03? 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
? Market loading… 3 months ago | — | Lost | +$0 |
Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.
Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.
Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.
Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.
This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.
Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.
Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.
Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.
superbeter007 has settled 32 bets on Polymarket at a 65.6% win rate for +$135K of net P&L, on $1.59M of total volume. 91% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 71% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.
Maximus22 has settled 66 bets on Polymarket at a 72.7% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $30.29M of total volume.
Pondermint has settled 45 bets on Polymarket at a 75.6% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $7.66M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 58s between fills, 25% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.