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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 025May 20, 2026

Trader File — KaneAnalytics

KaneAnalytics·live profile →
◆ Summary

KaneAnalytics has settled 54 bets on Polymarket at a 66.7% win rate for +$286K of net P&L, on $5.69M of total volume. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($5.69M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 445 unique markets across 2 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,056
Unique markets entered445
Resolved bets
Open positions5
Wins / Losses
Win rate66.7%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signaturehuman-rate execution
Median gap12sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills44.4%machine-tempo
Hour coverage63%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour00:00449 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$30
Mean bet$1.6K
P95 bet$8.8K
Max bet$106.6K
Top 5% share60.1%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)3.4%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)64.0%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)8.2%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share4.7%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days91/ 133d span
Trades / active day23
◆ Open Positions$86.0K at risk · 5 open
Cavaliers@84¢$58.5Kheld 37.2d · since 4/12/2026
Under@22¢$3.2Kheld 42.2d · since 4/8/2026
Under@54¢$782held 37.3d · since 4/12/2026
Raptors@57¢$18.8Kheld 37.3d · since 4/12/2026
Over@47¢$4.7Kheld 39.2d · since 4/10/2026
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 30 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
KaneAnalytics

KaneAnalytics

0x7e3a...3246
active 4mo ago67% WR+$286.4K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$286.4K
All time · per polymarket · curve from Mar 27

Where the edge is · win rate by category

sports
73% ·70
other
60% ·5
Portfolio Value
$269.5K
5 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate67%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor6.11
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$5.7M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets5954 resolved
Markets59
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 67% across 60 resolved bets
⚽ Strongest edge in sports (73% WR)
Behaviour
🔮
The Oracle
Specialist intel. Bets where others don't dare.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$10.7K average position
Consistency6.11x profit factor
Edge sourceSports · 73% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

5/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track KaneAnalytics live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
Live
Beta
···v0.1.0
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