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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 025May 20, 2026

Trader Report — KaneAnalytics

KaneAnalytics·live profile →
◆ Summary

KaneAnalytics has settled 54 bets on Polymarket at a 66.7% win rate for +$286K of net P&L, on $5.69M of total volume. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($5.69M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 445 unique markets across 2 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,056
Unique markets entered445
Closed positions1,387
Open positions5
Wins / Losses43 / 1263
Win rate66.7%
Total USDC invested$1.8M
Total USDC recovered$759.3K
Net PnL (closed only)-$1.0M
ROI (closed only)-56.9%
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signaturehuman-rate execution
Median gap12sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills44.4%machine-tempo
Hour coverage63%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour00:00449 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$30
Mean bet$1.6K
P95 bet$8.8K
Max bet$106.6K
Top 5% share60.1%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)3.4%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)64.0%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)8.2%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share4.7%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days91/ 133d span
Trades / active day23
◆ Open Positions$86.0K at risk · 5 open
Cavaliers@84¢$58.5Kheld 37.2d · since 4/12/2026
Under@22¢$3.2Kheld 42.2d · since 4/8/2026
Under@54¢$782held 37.3d · since 4/12/2026
Raptors@57¢$18.8Kheld 37.3d · since 4/12/2026
Over@47¢$4.7Kheld 39.2d · since 4/10/2026
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-05-20220W/0L
2026-05-19440W/0L
2026-05-18330W/0L
2026-04-22880W/0L
2026-04-21770W/0L
2026-04-18220W/0L
2026-04-15110W/0L
2026-04-14550W/0L
2026-04-1214140W/0L
2026-04-10550W/0L
2026-04-08550W/0L
2026-04-04442W/2L$8.0K-$223-2.8%
2026-04-033210W/2L$2.4K-$2.4K-100.0%
2026-04-02331W/2L$36.8K-$16.6K-45.2%
2026-03-30993W/6L$39.0K-$14.2K-36.4%
2026-03-2912123W/9L$136.6K-$38.9K-28.5%
2026-03-28111100W/1L$2.1K-$2.1K-100.0%
2026-03-2727272W/25L$154.6K-$140.2K-90.7%
2026-03-26302828W/20L$137.2K-$3.2K-2.3%
2026-03-25979616W/90L$94.9K-$42.5K-44.8%
2026-03-241581585W/153L$272.2K-$190.3K-69.9%
2026-03-23262512W/23L$81.7K-$728-0.9%
2026-03-22434212W/40L$156.2K-$117.4K-75.1%
2026-03-2134346W/28L$157.9K-$97.3K-61.6%
2026-03-20191813W/15L$16.8K-$7.6K-45.1%
2026-03-1933433040W/330L$50.8K-$50.8K-100.0%
2026-03-1851050640W/506L$89.9K-$89.9K-100.0%
2026-03-17121110W/11L$25.1K-$25.1K-100.0%
2026-03-16220W/0L
2026-03-15550W/0L
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$286.4K
All time · per polymarket
MEDIUMwhale
0x7e3a...3246
59 trades
40whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 67% across 54 resolved bets
⚽ Strongest edge in sports (73% WR)
Win Rate67%36/54
P&L+$286.4K
Volume$5.7M
Printing

Open Now

$269.5K at risk

Top Calls

HHeat vs. Pacers+$30.4K
KKnicks vs. Hornets+$15.3K
BBulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5+$11.6K
SSpread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5)+$10.9K
SSpread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5)+$10.9K

Recent Events

W
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 249.5
Apr 5, 26
+$1.8KWIN
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
W
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 249.5
Apr 5, 26
+$2.0KWIN
?
Apr 5, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 3, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 3, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 3, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 3, 26
$0LOSS
S
Suns vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5
Apr 3, 26
+$2.4KWIN
?
Mar 30, 26
$0LOSS
CategoryBetsWRP&L
sports7073%+$188.6K
other560%+$25.0K

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 100% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 0 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+15
Total Volume+15
Activity Level+10
Total40
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track KaneAnalytics live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
Live
Beta
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