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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 015May 20, 2026

Trader Report — JhonAlexanderHinestroza

JhonAlexanderHinestroza·live profile →
◆ Summary

JhonAlexanderHinestroza has settled 30 bets on Polymarket at a 86.7% win rate for +$400K of net P&L, on $12.09M of total volume. 77% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($12.09M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. 77% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 134 unique markets across 2 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,613
Unique markets entered134
Closed positions0
Open positions0
Wins / Losses0 / 0
Win rate86.7%
Total USDC invested$0
Total USDC recovered$0
Net PnL (closed only)+$0
ROI (closed only)
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signaturehuman-rate execution
Median gap2sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills86.1%machine-tempo
Hour coverage75%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour18:00705 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$13
Mean bet$246
P95 bet$1.2K
Max bet$22.1K
Top 5% share65.4%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)6.2%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)77.1%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)7.4%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share7.0%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days18/ 36d span
Trades / active day222
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 18 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-05-1967670W/0L
2026-05-173583580W/0L
2026-05-1661610W/0L
2026-05-1550500W/0L
2026-04-2737370W/0L
2026-04-261411410W/0L
2026-04-252132130W/0L
2026-04-2415150W/0L
2026-04-232732730W/0L
2026-04-2235350W/0L
2026-04-2147470W/0L
2026-04-2099990W/0L
2026-04-193873870W/0L
2026-04-182562560W/0L
2026-04-172042040W/0L
2026-04-162712710W/0L
2026-04-1595950W/0L
2026-04-14440W/0L
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$400.4K
All time · per polymarket
📉
15L
losing run
HIGHwhale
0x44c5...8d45
79 trades
50whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 87% across 30 resolved bets
🌍 Strongest edge in geopolitics (75% WR)
Win Rate87%26/30
P&L+$400.4K
Volume$12.1M
Printing

Recent Events

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Apr 6, 26
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CategoryBetsWRP&L
sports10771%+$22.2K
geopolitics4975%+$5.1K

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 100% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 0 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+30
Total Volume+10
Activity Level+10
Total50
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track JhonAlexanderHinestroza live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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