Live
◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 038May 20, 2026

Trader Report — Jargs

◆ Summary

Jargs has settled 34 bets on Polymarket at a 64.7% win rate for +$196K of net P&L, on $5.50M of total volume. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 8s between fills, 52% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a shark ($5.50M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. 64% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 467 unique markets across 4 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🦈
Shark
Large enough that liquidity has to find it.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,992
Unique markets entered467
Closed positions881
Open positions12
Wins / Losses0 / 224
Win rate64.7%
Total USDC invested$768.5K
Total USDC recovered$327.9K
Net PnL (closed only)-$441.1K
ROI (closed only)-57.4%
Avg holding time
Longest hold
Shortest hold
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap8sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills51.7%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour19:00535 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$15
Mean bet$785
P95 bet$4.1K
Max bet$99.8K
Top 5% share64.9%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)10.9%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)63.8%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)3.2%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share6.3%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days70/ 89d span
Trades / active day57
◆ Open Positions$49.4K at risk · 12 open
Over@45¢$2.1Kheld 30.4d · since 4/19/2026
Hailey Baptiste@81¢$1.2Kheld 37.5d · since 4/12/2026
Flyers@30¢$2.4Kheld 35.3d · since 4/14/2026
No@88¢$498held 33.2d · since 4/17/2026
No@37¢$186held 35.3d · since 4/14/2026
Carlos Alcaraz@95¢$5.3Kheld 36.8d · since 4/13/2026
No@60¢$16.4Kheld 31.2d · since 4/18/2026
Yes@90¢$27held 30.1d · since 4/20/2026
Club Tijuana@64¢$8.0Kheld 31.3d · since 4/18/2026
Predators@57¢$6.4Kheld 36.2d · since 4/13/2026
No@77¢$3.5Kheld 31.7d · since 4/18/2026
No@68¢$3.4Kheld 36.4d · since 4/13/2026
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLROIHold
2026-05-20110W/0L
2026-05-1982820W/0L
2026-05-1891910W/0L
2026-05-1741410W/0L
2026-05-1636360W/0L
2026-05-15770W/0L
2026-04-27110W/0L
2026-04-2624240W/0L
2026-04-25220W/0L
2026-04-2493930W/0L
2026-04-2316160W/0L
2026-04-2225250W/0L
2026-04-2110100W/0L
2026-04-2054540W/0L
2026-04-191031030W/0L
2026-04-18770W/0L
2026-04-1797970W/0L
2026-04-16110W/0L
2026-04-1515150W/0L
2026-04-1438380W/0L
2026-04-1311110W/0L
2026-04-1274740W/0L
2026-04-11550W/0L
2026-04-10440W/0L
2026-04-09330W/0L
2026-04-0865650W/0L
2026-04-072572570W/0L
2026-04-0618180W/0L
2026-04-041311310W/131L$8.0K-$8.0K-100.0%
2026-04-03969330W/93L$27.0K-$27.0K-100.0%
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
Profit / Loss
+$195.9K
All time · per polymarket
MEDIUMwhale
0xf164...8fa4
50 trades
45whale score
High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 65% across 34 resolved bets
⚽ Strongest edge in sports (65% WR)
Win Rate65%22/34
P&L+$195.9K
Volume$5.5M
Printing

Open Now

$554.2K at risk
+7 more

Top Calls

UUS forces enter Iran by March 31?+$100

Recent Events

U
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Apr 5, 26
+$100WIN
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
?
Apr 4, 26
$0LOSS
CategoryBetsWRP&L
sports5365%+$74.9K
geopolitics3100%+$809

P&L Calendar · 90 days

loss
none
win
Timing signal: 100% of wins resolved within 2 weeks. Avg 0 days — consistent with pre-announcement positioning.

Evidence

whale
Win Rate+15
Bet Size+10
Total Volume+10
Activity Level+10
Total45
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track Jargs live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
Live
Beta
···v0.1.0

CrowdIntel needs a newer browser

Your device is on iOS 15 or older. CrowdIntel uses features (color-mix, WebGL2, modern auth) that require iOS 16+ / Safari 16+.

iPhone 7 maxes out at iOS 15, so the site can't render here. Open CrowdIntel on a desktop browser or a newer phone.

crowdintel.xyz

◆ legacy browser fallback