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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 045May 20, 2026

Trader File — ElonSpam

◆ Summary

ElonSpam has settled 125 bets on Polymarket at a 76.0% win rate for +$158K of net P&L, on $76.23M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 4s between fills, 57% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($76.23M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 273 unique markets across 4 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades3,018
Unique markets entered273
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate76.0%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap4sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills56.8%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour00:00652 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$20
Mean bet$667
P95 bet$3.3K
Max bet$40.0K
Top 5% share67.5%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)50.7%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)21.8%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)1.4%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share4.3%of total notional
Both-sides rate1.7%of markets hedged
Active days31/ 47d span
Trades / active day129
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 30 active days
Pro · Locked

Unlock the day-by-day breakdown

All 30 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
ElonSpam

ElonSpam

0x5116...58c4
active 4mo ago76% WR+$157.8K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$157.8K
All time · per polymarket · curve from Apr 6

Where the edge is · win rate by category

📱 social media
95% ·80
sports
74% ·190
crypto
14% ·14
other
5% ·279
Portfolio Value
$456.9K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate76%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor0.29
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$76.2M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets1152125 resolved
Markets1145
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 76% across 125 resolved bets
📱 Strongest edge in social-media (95% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$4.9K average position
Consistency0.29x profit factor
Edge sourceSocial Media · 95% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

15L streak
0/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track ElonSpam live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

◆ More reports
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Beta
···v0.1.0
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