CrowdIntelTrader Report — Castolo
Castolo has settled 65 bets on Polymarket at a 84.6% win rate for +$203K of net P&L, on $8.98M of total volume. 60% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes.
Classified as a shark ($8.98M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. 60% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 167 unique markets across 3 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: mid-band directional bettor.
| Date | Buys | Closed | Open | W/L | Spent | PnL | ROI | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 5 | — | 5 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 5 | — | 5 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 1 | — | 1 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 159 | — | 159 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 233 | — | 233 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 48 | — | 48 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-09 | 114 | — | 114 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-08 | 103 | — | 103 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-07 | 39 | — | 39 | 0W/0L | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-06 | 476 | 12 | 464 | 0W/12L | $83 | -$83 | -100.0% | — |
| 2026-04-05 | 530 | 317 | 213 | 11W/306L | $27.6K | -$19.6K | -70.9% | — |
| 2026-04-04 | 499 | 434 | 65 | 3W/431L | $69.1K | -$67.7K | -98.1% | — |
| 2026-04-03 | 154 | 120 | 34 | 1W/119L | $31.2K | -$31.1K | -99.8% | — |
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$295.0K at riskTop Calls
Recent Events
P&L Calendar · 90 days
Evidence
whaleStats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.
Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.
Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.
Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.
This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.
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Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.
superbeter007 has settled 32 bets on Polymarket at a 65.6% win rate for +$135K of net P&L, on $1.59M of total volume. 91% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 71% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.
Maximus22 has settled 66 bets on Polymarket at a 72.7% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $30.29M of total volume.
Pondermint has settled 45 bets on Polymarket at a 75.6% win rate for +$144K of net P&L, on $7.66M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 58s between fills, 25% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.