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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 029May 20, 2026

Trader File — CamelUp

◆ Summary

CamelUp has settled 89 bets on Polymarket at a 68.5% win rate for +$263K of net P&L, on $10.62M of total volume. 52% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ mid-band — directional bets on uncertain outcomes.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($10.62M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is machine. 52% of capital lives in the 30–70¢ band, where the trader has to actually be right about uncertain outcomes. Sustained profitability in this band is harder to explain by structural arbitrage — there's a directional view. Spread across 580 unique markets across 3 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: mid-band directional bettor.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🤖
Machine
Inhuman market count. Likely automated.
Strategy verdict
mid-band directional bettor
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades4,000
Unique markets entered580
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate68.5%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signaturehuman-rate execution
Median gap6sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills55.2%machine-tempo
Hour coverage29%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour13:001,495 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$10
Mean bet$74
P95 bet$241
Max bet$10.4K
Top 5% share56.6%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)4.1%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)52.0%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)13.5%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share17.3%of total notional
Both-sides rateof markets hedged
Active days8/ 29d span
Trades / active day500
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 8 active days
Pro · Locked

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All 8 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
CamelUp

CamelUp

0x1755...5aac
active 4mo ago69% WR+$262.8K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$262.8K
All time · per polymarket
Where the edge is · win rate by category
other
89% ·119
🏢 corporate
76% ·117
🔬 tech
70% ·513
💰 finance
69% ·61
Portfolio Value
$45.8K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate69%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor0.00
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$10.6M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets41589 resolved
Markets334
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 69% across 89 resolved bets
🔬 Strongest edge in tech (70% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$322 average position
Consistency0.00x profit factor
Edge sourceTech · 70% win rate

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

15L streak
0/15 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track CamelUp live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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Beta
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