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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader Report · Vol 007May 20, 2026

Trader Report — BoneReader

BoneReader·live profile →
◆ Summary

BoneReader has settled 1,904 bets on Polymarket at a 88.2% win rate for +$1.02M of net P&L, on $171.16M of total volume. 99% of capital sits at ≥95¢ entry — penny-carry on near-certain outcomes, not informational edge. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 0s between fills, 79% sub-10s, active across 88% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($171.16M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is machine. The price-band distribution is the tell: 99% of capital deployed at ≥95¢ is the shape of a structural-edge arbitrage scalper, not a wallet trading on information. Each individual bet returns 1–3% on capital with near-certain probability; the P&L is the cumulative spread capture. Spread across 712 unique markets across 1 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · heavy-favorite arbitrage scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🤖
Machine
Inhuman market count. Likely automated.
Strategy verdict
automated · heavy-favorite arbitrage scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades4,000
Unique markets entered712
Resolved bets
Open positions39
Wins / Losses
Win rate88.2%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap0sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills79.1%machine-tempo
Hour coverage88%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour11:00437 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$9
Mean bet$127
P95 bet$919
Max bet$6.0K
Top 5% share57.3%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)98.5%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)0.8%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)0.1%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share4.6%of total notional
Both-sides rate1.1%of markets hedged
Active days2/ 1d span
Trades / active day2000
◆ Open Positions$8.7K at risk · 39 open
Down@100¢$290held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@98¢$1.5Kheld 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Down@100¢$379held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Down@49¢$5held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@100¢$258held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@100¢$258held 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Up@44¢$8held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@47¢$9held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Down@45¢$9held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@99¢$96held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@100¢$170held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Down@49¢$5held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@1¢$3held 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Down@47¢$9held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@44¢$8held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Up@99¢$96held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@47¢$9held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@99¢$22held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Down@48¢$9held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@49¢$5held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@93¢$932held 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Up@48¢$9held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@48¢$9held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@49¢$6held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@100¢$70held 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Down@49¢$5held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@47¢$9held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Up@98¢$3.0Kheld 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Down@100¢$506held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Down@100¢$755held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@99¢$37held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Up@49¢$5held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Up@41¢$8held 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Up@41¢$8held 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Down@99¢$127held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Down@49¢$4held 45.0d · since 4/5/2026
Up@49¢$5held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
Up@42¢$8held 45.1d · since 4/5/2026
Down@98¢$95held 44.9d · since 4/5/2026
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 2 active days
DateBuysClosedOpenW/LSpentPnLHold
2026-04-05110231478810W/304L$37.5K-$31.2K
2026-04-042898209979956W/2043L$284.9K-$262.4K
◆ Linked artifactscross-references
BoneReader
whale
BoneReader
0xd84c...07b9
Profit / Loss
+$1.0M
All time · per polymarket
59whale score
equity curve appears once recent bets resolve

Where the edge is · win rate by category

other
99% ·449
crypto
85% ·1830
Portfolio Value
$93.0K
39 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate88%
Profit Factor1.33
Confidence99%
Population Z+51.4σ
Volume$171.2M
Avg PnL / Prediction+$536
Bets19951904 resolved
Markets1980
Avg Position$3.0K
active 3mo ago88% WR+$1.0M PnL

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Elite win rate — 88% across 1904 resolved bets
◆ Strongest edge in other (99% WR)

Recent form · last 15 resolutions

15L streak
0/15 won · newest first

Population standing — where this wallet ranks

MarketBetStatusPnL
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
3 months ago
Won+$12
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
3 months ago
Won+$10
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
3 months ago
Won+$10
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
3 months ago
Won+$10
B
BNB Up or Down - April 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
3 months ago
Won+$1
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
S
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
E
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
B
BNB Up or Down - April 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
3 months ago
Lost+$0
B
BNB Up or Down - April 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
?
Market loading…
3 months ago
Lost+$0
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
3 months ago
Lost-$2
S
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
3 months ago
Lost-$2
X
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
3 months ago
Lost-$5
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
3 months ago
Lost-$7
B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
3 months ago
Lost-$9
E
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
3 months ago
Lost-$9
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track BoneReader live · Pro

This report is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

Live alerts

Push + email on every sized bet from this wallet.

Cluster feed

Real-time tape of every wallet in the funding cluster.

Raw export

Full trade history as CSV — slice it however you want.

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