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◆ CrowdIntel · Trader File · Vol 047May 20, 2026

Trader File — archaic

◆ Summary

archaic has settled 405 bets on Polymarket at a 68.1% win rate for +$150K of net P&L, on $23.76M of total volume. Trade rhythm flags automation: median 2s between fills, 63% sub-10s, active across 100% of UTC hours.

The edge

Classified as a whale ($23.76M in lifetime volume) running a unknown style style; performance reads as steady earner; book diversity is wide net. Capital distribution is balanced across price bands — neither concentrated arbitrage nor pure longshot betting. Spread across 181 unique markets across 3 categories — diversified across the order book. 8-signal classification: automated · tape-reading scalper.

◆ Trader Profile4-axis archetype
Size
🐳
Whale
Market moves when this one does.
Style
Unknown style
No resolved trades to time.
Performance
📈
Steady Earner
Consistent positive returns. Reliable edge.
Diversity
🎰
Wide net
Many markets. Generalist or scanner.
Strategy verdict
automated · tape-reading scalper
◆ Profile Statsderived from full trade history
Total BUY trades2,393
Unique markets entered181
Resolved bets
Open positions0
Wins / Losses
Win rate68.1%
Total volume
Net PnL
ROI
◆ Bot signature🤖 likely automated
Median gap2sbetween fills
Sub-10s fills63.0%machine-tempo
Hour coverage100%of UTC hours
Peak UTC hour06:00632 trades
◆ Sizing
Median bet$1
Mean bet$69
P95 bet$410
Max bet$8.0K
Top 5% share67.2%of total notional
◆ Entry price distribution
≥ 95¢ (favorite)44.6%penny carry
30¢–70¢ (mid)2.4%directional
< 30¢ (longshot)0.3%lottery tickets
◆ Concentration
Top market share14.7%of total notional
Both-sides rate0.0%of markets hedged
Active days22/ 36d span
Trades / active day182
◆ By Daycounted on closing date · last 21 active days
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All 21 active days — buys, closes, W/L, spend, PnL and hold time.

◆ Linked artifactscross-references
archaic

archaic

0x1f0a...f7aa
active 4mo ago68% WR+$150.4K PnL
Profit / Loss
+$150.4K
All time · per polymarket
Where the edge is · win rate by category
sports
68% ·22
other
51% ·5175
💰 finance
47% ·38
crypto
44% ·1178
politics
30% ·4590
Portfolio Value
$62.9K
0 open positions · at entry cost
Win Rate68%
Bayesian Win Rate
Profit Factor0.57
Confidence
Population Z
p-value
Volume$23.8M
Avg PnL / Prediction
Bets1610405 resolved
Markets1551
Avg Position
Max Drawdown
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h

Profile & edge

High-conviction whale — large-stake market participant
Strong win rate — 68% across 405 resolved bets
◆ Strongest edge in Sports (68% WR)
Behaviour
🐋
The Whale
Market-moving capital. Volume is the message.
Trading cadenceNo recent fills
Risk profile$5.1K average position
Consistency0.57x profit factor
Edge sourceSports · 68% win rate

Recent form · last 10 resolutions

5L streak
1/10 won · newest first
Skill
EV CI-low
Effective n
Skill z
EV / $ (decayed)
Markout 1h
Markout 24h
◆ Methodology

Stats in this report are a frozen snapshot taken on May 20, 2026. The live wallet profile reflects current numbers — they will diverge over time.

Win rate is computed on resolved Polymarket bets only. P&L uses on-chain entry costs vs resolution outcomes from market_outcomes. Win-rate alone is not a finding; we look at the difference between scope win-rate and the wallet's global rate (edge), combined with p-value vs a null model and signed P&L.

Funding clusters are detected by USDC lineage traced through Polygonscan. Time clusters are wallets that placed sized bets on the same condition within a 60-minute window. Cluster membership is a signal, not an accusation — read the full methodology for caveats.

Sources: Polygon on-chain (Subsquid indexer), Polymarket Gamma API for market metadata, Polygonscan for USDC funding traces.

◆ Track archaic live · Pro

This file is a frozen snapshot. Get notified when this trader opens new positions, watch their co-trader cluster move in real time, and export the raw trade history.

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Cluster feed

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Raw export

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Beta
···v0.1.0
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