CrowdIntelThe market said 30%. He hits 46% — over 1,181 bets.
One pseudonymous account beats the entry-price odds on world-news markets by 13.2 standard deviations. The odds of luck: about 1 in 10⁴⁰.
The anomaly
Across 1,181 resolved positions, this account wins 46.2% of bets whose entry prices average 30.0¢— the market said “30% likely” and he hits 46%. Against the entry-odds null the deviation is z = 13.2 (about 1 in 10⁴⁰). Of 102,263 wallets scanned with the same method, it is one of the most extreme deviations that survives every correction — the Bonferroni line for this scan is z ≥ 5, the same bar physics uses to declare a discovery.
A random bettor paying his prices wins 30% of the time. He wins 46%, over a thousand bets. Either the fastest, coldest reader of world news on the platform — or someone who knows which headlines are noise.
Redeemed at resolution, not scalped
He is not a favorites-buyer, not a market maker, and not an early-exit scalper. Polymarket’s own activity records show his headline wins were redeemed at resolution — held, not sold out early.
| Market (resolved in his favor) | PM redeem |
|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement / ceasefire extension by June | +$46,952 |
| Abelardo de la Espriella wins 1st round, 2026 Colombia election | +$45,975 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31 | +$45,033 |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | +$22,348 |
| Oh Se-hoon wins 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | +$19,110 |
| Freedom Movement (GS) wins most seats | +$16,485 |
| Iran x Israel / US conflict ends by April 7? | +$8,767 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | +$7,217 |
The pattern
Date-specific world-news markets — Iran war deadlines, Latin American and Asian elections — bought at 10–45¢, on whichever side is mispriced. During the 2026 Iran war he repeatedly took the calm side of hysteria-priced deadline markets (“uranium surrender” No @ 22¢) and won. His losers are small entertainment bets.
“Jeffrey Epstein confirmed alive before 2027?” — No @ 30¢ avg, now trading 97.6¢ (+$5.3K unrealized).
How we computed this
The measure, the multiple-testing correction, and what we do not claim.
Skill vs entry odds, never raw win rate
For each wallet, over resolved positions, expected wins = Σ(entry price) and variance = Σ p(1−p). The z-score is (actual wins − expected) ÷ √variance. Entry price is the market’s own probability at purchase, so buying 95¢ favorites earns no credit — the null already expects those to win. A raw win rate is meaningless on its own.
Multiple-testing honesty
We scanned 102,263 wallets meeting the filters (≥20 resolved positions, ≥$10K staked, entry price 2–98¢). At z ≥ 3 chance alone would produce ~138 flags; we found 740. The Bonferroni-corrected line for this scan is z ≥ 5 — every headline account here clears it.
The dollars are Polymarket’s own
Every dollar figure comes from Polymarket’s public APIs (leaderboard profit + activity redemptions). Our internal ledger is used only to find wallets and compute the odds-based statistics, never to quote profit. Named per-market claims are re-derived from Polymarket’s activity records — buys, sells, and redemptions — so an account that scalped out early is not credited with a jackpot it never held.
What we do not claim
Addresses are pseudonymous; usernames are quoted as displayed. We assert no identity, no intent, and no wrongdoing — trade data cannot prove those. The words used are statistically extreme, coordinated, and anomalous. A shared funder plus an improbable record is evidence worth examining, not a verdict.