For builders

Polymarket backtesting: replay signals over resolved on-chain history

Before a strategy touches real USDC, it should survive the past. CrowdIntel indexes 1.7B on-chain Polymarket trades and their market resolutions, and exposes both a hosted Backtest API and the raw history endpoints to grade any entry rule against what actually happened.

Short answer

Submit a job to POST /api/v1/backtest/run — pick a signal stream (whale / insider / all), filters, a period of up to 3 years, a stake rule, and fee + slippage assumptions — then poll GET /api/v1/backtest/{job_id}for the equity curve. Every simulated entry is graded against the market's real resolution. Prefer your own harness? The same resolved history is queryable endpoint-by-endpoint.

What the hosted backtester simulates

A run replays CrowdIntel's historical whale and insider alerts as if your bot had traded them, with the parameters you control:

signal
Which alert stream to replay: whale, insider, or all.
filters
Narrow the replayed signals: min/max suspicion score, market category, entry-odds band, minimum bet size.
period
Simulation window — up to 3 years of resolved history per run.
stake_rule
Flat stake or fractional-of-bankroll sizing, optionally scaled by signal score.
fees
Fee and slippage assumptions in basis points, so fills aren't graded at fantasy prices.
initial_capital
Starting bankroll for the equity curve.

Jobs are queued and rate-limited per key (heavy compute is the abuse surface), and windows are bounded so runs return in reasonable time.

Or build your own harness

The hosted backtester is convenience, not lock-in. Everything it reads is exposed raw on the Terminal plan:

•GET /api/v1/trades — the fill tape, filterable by wallet, market, side, size, or a bounded time window.
•GET /api/v1/wallets/{address}/trades — full per-wallet history, cursor-paginated.
•GET /api/v1/signals/* — historical insider-score signals to use as entry triggers.
•Wallet stats with resolved-outcome win rates and PnL — the ground truth to grade against.

FAQ

How do I backtest a Polymarket strategy?

Two paths. Hosted: POST /api/v1/backtest/run with a signal type (whale, insider, or all), filters, a period, a stake rule, and fee assumptions — the job queues, runs against resolved on-chain history, and you poll GET /api/v1/backtest/{job_id} for the result. DIY: pull per-wallet trade history and the fill tape from the REST API and grade entries against market resolutions in your own harness.

Why do prediction-market backtests need resolved outcomes?

A backtest on Polymarket is only honest if every simulated entry is graded against how the market actually resolved — WIN or LOSS — not against a later price snapshot. CrowdIntel tracks market resolutions alongside 1.7B indexed trades, so both the hosted backtester and anything you build on the API grade against real resolutions.

What does the hosted Backtest API cost?

The Backtest API ships on Terminal Pro ($299/mo) — it's the heavy-compute tier. Runs are queued with per-key concurrency limits and a simulation window of up to 3 years. If you'd rather build your own harness, the history endpoints it reads from ship on the standard Terminal plan ($99/mo).

Can I backtest copy-trading a specific wallet?

Yes, DIY-style: GET /api/v1/wallets/{address}/trades returns the wallet's full cursor-paginated trade history, and wallet stats include resolved-outcome win rates and PnL. Replay those entries with your own sizing to see what following that wallet would have returned — before you follow it live.

Run your first backtest

Full request/response schemas in the API reference; plans and limits on pricing. Related: the Polymarket API for bots overview and what historical data the backtester runs on.