CrowdIntel/ dossier
Issue №007 · Mar 25 · 2026
◆ Cluster intel · geopolitics
18 wallets.
One hand.
Massive cluster of 953 wallets funded by a single address (0xf5042...). 18 of these wallets have 70%+ win rates on geopolitics markets with 3+ geopolitics bets. The top wallet in this cluster has a 100% win rate across 7 resolved bets with $129K in profit, betting exclusively on Iran and Israel military markets. Combined cluster profit exceeds $5.8M. The sheer scale of this network, with nearly a thousand wallets from one funder, combined with the concentration in military and geopolitical markets, makes this one of the most statistically significant clusters in the dataset.
Bayesian win rate
86%
Confidence
93%
Z-score
16.68σ
Cluster PnL
-$4.9M
◆ Cluster highlights
Bucked consensus
63 wins
avg bet $20.9K
◆ Funding map
◆ Wallet roster
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC wins | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | 12 | 92% | 5 | W7 | -$4.7M | |
| Qulang555 | 33 | 85% | 8 | W17 | -$173.1K | |
| Uruk | 63 | 79% | 12 | W8 | -$41.1K | |
| robota | 60 | 78% | 15 | W12 | -$72.3K | |
| 0xcdb1…276c | 20 | 100% | 4 | W8 | +$65.2K | |
| bigmac999 | 18 | 72% | 6 | W7 | +$13.6K | |
| 0x99dd…4303 | 12 | 100% | 3 | W5 | +$20.9K | |
| 0x92a6…8b84 | 60 | 100% | 10 | W20 | -$4.4K |
◆ Markets touched

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
W
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
W
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?

US forces enter Iran by April 30?