CrowdIntel3 geopolitics wallets: 100% win rate across 764 resolved bets
3 Polymarket wallets, all funded from a single on-chain address, placed 764 resolved bets on geopolitics markets and won 100% of them — a result you would expect less than 1 in 10,000 of the time by chance. They moved $22K in volume for $4K in net profit.
The evidence
Across 764 resolved bets the cluster won 100% outright. Adjusting for sample size, the Bayesian win rate is 100% at 97% confidence, and the result sits 26.6 standard deviations above a 50/50 baseline. A coincidence of this size would occur less than 1 in 10,000 of the time.
How the wallets are linked
Every wallet in this cluster traces back to one funding address — 0x0114…2992, a funder that bankrolled 40 wallets in total. That funder is not a known exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory, and its fan-out is small enough to indicate a deliberately coordinated set of wallets rather than shared infrastructure. On that basis the shared-funding link is treated as verified.
Cluster highlights
Funding map
The wallets
The cluster is made up of 3 wallets, each linked on-chain to the same funder. Individual records below.
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FA fasilkom 0xeeec…a723 | 382 | 100% | — | — | +$1.7K | |
FC fcomp3 0x23d1…353f | 78 | 100% | — | — | +$1.2K | |
OM omegaming 0x958a…9f65 | 304 | 100% | — | — | +$934 |
Markets they targeted
The wallets concentrated their bets in a handful of geopolitics markets, ranked here by the cluster's volume.
Methodology & limitations
How we detect these clusters, what the numbers mean, and what we do not claim.
How we detect it
Every Polymarket trade is read directly from the Polygon blockchain. We trace the USDC that funded each trading wallet back to its source address. Wallets sharing a single funder are grouped, their funder is screened against exchange / relayer / proxy-factory infrastructure, and only genuinely coordinated funders are reported as clusters. Their market outcomes are then aggregated from on-chain resolutions.
What the numbers mean
- Win rate — resolved bets won ÷ total resolved.
- Bayesian win rate — win rate shrunk toward 50% to correct for small samples; closer to raw as the sample grows.
- Confidence — how much the sample size supports the estimate.
- Z-score — standard deviations above a coin-flip baseline.
- By chance (p-value) — how often a result this strong would happen by luck.
Funding linkage
A “verified” funding link means the wallets received USDC from the same address and that address is not a known exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory. We currently trace direct (one-hop) funding; multi-hop and same-batch timing analysis are in progress.
What we do not claim
We do not assert the identity of any wallet owner, their intent, or that any law was broken. Shared funding plus an improbable win record is evidence worth examining — not a verdict. Figures are computed from on-chain data and update as markets resolve.