CrowdIntel25 geopolitics wallets: 94% win rate across 986 resolved bets
25 Polymarket wallets, all funded from a single on-chain address, placed 986 resolved bets on geopolitics markets and won 94% of them — a result you would expect less than 1 in 10,000 of the time by chance. They moved $6K in volume for -$242 in net profit.
The evidence
Across 986 resolved bets the cluster won 94% outright. Adjusting for sample size, the Bayesian win rate is 94% at 98% confidence, and the result sits 26.4 standard deviations above a 50/50 baseline. A coincidence of this size would occur less than 1 in 10,000 of the time.
How the wallets are linked
These wallets share the funder 0x7468…1046, but that address behaves like shared infrastructure (an exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory) rather than a single coordinator, so the "shared funding" link is NOT treated as evidence of coordination here.
Cluster highlights
Funding map
The wallets
The cluster is made up of 25 wallets, each linked on-chain to the same funder. Individual records below.
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xA2F687bBD5C171A71B4520475A43CFB7897dd7bb-1769827091467 0xa2f6…d7bb | 15 | 93% | — | — | +$10 | |
0X 0xc550267b020F05052C1e863312D813c6388DA229-1770354784578 0xc550…a229 | 81 | 94% | — | — | +$5 | |
0X 0xAAE9B14DDC0e65A0cFc42a56500ABEC79EeBbADa-1770354915687 0xaae9…bada | 19 | 100% | — | — | +$4 | |
0X 0xA0f9317968e09050Ef82280B3479a865d689Dc6f-1769827229130 0xa0f9…dc6f | 8 | 88% | — | — | +$2 | |
0X 0x7c5f6Ffb43ad170c22C97D78899D2943d8B1E71B-1770355096276 0x7c5f…e71b | 10 | 90% | — | — | +$1 | |
0X 0x68090d2A55fe26e370B1F793dcC3bd4EB1c96398-1770355010947 0x6809…6398 | 8 | 100% | — | — | +$1 | |
0X 0xBFB5FAc92912A7D7f7044ADF1902e360edc4051c-1770354964058 0xbfb5…051c | 9 | 89% | — | — | +$1 | |
0X 0x94475B9D55B76B7229332b13477C1372056fc31A-1769826480265 0x9447…c31a | 8 | 100% | — | — | -$0 | |
0X 0xA906a7317932489b8bD9a903bA86cdE7c08afFae-1770354872893 0xa906…ffae | 18 | 94% | — | — | -$1 | |
0X 0x1438FE27D2BCf7f495568fD152972b68418AEAB8-1769542209955 0x1438…eab8 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$1 | |
0X 0x8be29Fd600105f72cdc5e392ce7205a64b094b0c-1770355053697 0x8be2…4b0c | 5 | 100% | — | — | -$8 | |
0X 0xCF46ee5B856E48efB8802E81F68Dc935DD59a3d9-1769827343567 0xcf46…a3d9 | 21 | 90% | — | — | -$5 | |
0X 0x5542C5f8Ff535B8a901824D13056F62B2ab0f55c-1769827165794 0x5542…f55c | 8 | 100% | — | — | -$5 | |
0X 0x99497Fc47116e50A026139da7426CB2FEFC5C62B-1769826692224 0x9949…c62b | 6 | 83% | — | — | -$6 | |
0X 0xe7240b72E61C1ef973D860BbAfE01918CaE98E51-1769542977592 0xe724…8e51 | 43 | 93% | — | — | -$7 | |
0X 0x531e948d1BDC612304949AAC1f378aE23312f4D5-1769541650712 0x531e…f4d5 | 16 | 94% | — | — | -$8 | |
0X 0xF30E069b3950fB60052b91dC86995ccC4554496d-1769542928973 0xf30e…496d | 36 | 86% | — | — | -$10 | |
0X 0x16A49A65a2314064E35264675eff536F60826dA9-1769542109210 0x16a4…6da9 | 102 | 98% | — | — | -$12 | |
0X 0x73fD839135a8365053894Ac3918C02bDF7f6B3e4-1769543317720 0x73fd…b3e4 | 92 | 99% | — | — | -$13 | |
0X 0xFc39952528064Cab94835Acdccc55109002b09f6-1769826625127 0xfc39…09f6 | 14 | 79% | — | — | -$13 | |
0X 0xBE2D2e366cDC7f39e7d0fb7363eEfae73785e053-1769827282888 0xbe2d…e053 | 9 | 78% | — | — | -$15 | |
0X 0xBdb52F62f013B21aC2105f4506c931e4BE00D265-1769543233829 0xbdb5…d265 | 154 | 95% | — | — | -$19 | |
0X 0xb9580e7F39f6b2B8E1992FD3d389B77Ccf8Ea239-1769541957495 0xb958…a239 | 80 | 94% | — | — | -$20 | |
0X 0xf6DFb491B85CF95117d517d9C4757d9aB7eCd304-1769541774263 0xf6df…d304 | 85 | 91% | — | — | -$59 | |
0X 0xC8fDEeCa7c8CDD2a0d38AB2Ac5c20b250FcB8266-1769543155729 0xc8fd…8266 | 136 | 94% | — | — | -$64 |
Markets they targeted
The wallets concentrated their bets in a handful of geopolitics markets, ranked here by the cluster's volume.
Methodology & limitations
How we detect these clusters, what the numbers mean, and what we do not claim.
How we detect it
Every Polymarket trade is read directly from the Polygon blockchain. We trace the USDC that funded each trading wallet back to its source address. Wallets sharing a single funder are grouped, their funder is screened against exchange / relayer / proxy-factory infrastructure, and only genuinely coordinated funders are reported as clusters. Their market outcomes are then aggregated from on-chain resolutions.
What the numbers mean
- Win rate — resolved bets won ÷ total resolved.
- Bayesian win rate — win rate shrunk toward 50% to correct for small samples; closer to raw as the sample grows.
- Confidence — how much the sample size supports the estimate.
- Z-score — standard deviations above a coin-flip baseline.
- By chance (p-value) — how often a result this strong would happen by luck.
Funding linkage
A “verified” funding link means the wallets received USDC from the same address and that address is not a known exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory. We currently trace direct (one-hop) funding; multi-hop and same-batch timing analysis are in progress.
What we do not claim
We do not assert the identity of any wallet owner, their intent, or that any law was broken. Shared funding plus an improbable win record is evidence worth examining — not a verdict. Figures are computed from on-chain data and update as markets resolve.