CrowdIntel25 crypto wallets: 83% win rate across 844 resolved bets
25 Polymarket wallets, all funded from a single on-chain address, placed 844 resolved bets on crypto markets and won 83% of them — a result you would expect less than 1 in 10,000 of the time by chance. They moved $174K in volume for -$12K in net profit.
The evidence
Across 844 resolved bets the cluster won 83% outright. Adjusting for sample size, the Bayesian win rate is 82% at 98% confidence, and the result sits 17.8 standard deviations above a 50/50 baseline. A coincidence of this size would occur less than 1 in 10,000 of the time.
How the wallets are linked
These wallets share the funder 0xada5…f7cb, but that address behaves like shared infrastructure (an exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory) rather than a single coordinator, so the "shared funding" link is NOT treated as evidence of coordination here.
Cluster highlights
Funding map
The wallets
The cluster is made up of 25 wallets, each linked on-chain to the same funder. Individual records below.
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F8 0xf899…d12a | 203 | 92% | — | — | -$686 | |
PL PlatiNRA 0x8a1a…e54e | 7 | 71% | — | — | +$1.0K | |
LO lolololz 0x7fd3…bd04 | 113 | 75% | — | — | -$6.3K | |
MR Mr.Charada 0x004c…ab0c | 72 | 79% | — | — | -$3.6K | |
PE Peiper43 0x6756…99ab | 15 | 93% | — | — | -$2.2K | |
HU humbleprinter 0x146c…3ff4 | 4 | 75% | — | — | -$1.2K | |
FA 0xfa22…3715 | 6 | 100% | — | — | +$3.4K | |
UW uwillknowmee 0x708f…b2fa | 6 | 100% | — | — | -$965 | |
0X 0x6D43dC676f9fd56fE837b5BC62DEFaaAA38d1d9c-1768188751946 0x6d43…1d9c | 64 | 86% | — | — | +$278 | |
ME MERKAVA55DELASTREET 0x9ccc…f96a | 11 | 73% | — | — | -$1.1K | |
TR Trepo42 0xab80…5f5a | 4 | 100% | — | — | +$416 | |
AF Afrohat 0x8037…d534 | 4 | 75% | — | — | -$43 | |
0X 0xf044f086768ad122057cf04C105a64fE87496765-1767802893352 0xf044…6765 | 8 | 88% | — | — | +$50 | |
KU kurwonsz 0x12e0…76d7 | 51 | 71% | — | — | -$30 | |
TH thepoorkid 0x42cb…02e0 | 6 | 100% | — | — | +$12 | |
XY xyk101010 0x09a1…5e91 | 7 | 100% | — | — | -$5 | |
KU kubertete 0xa4b0…5488 | 5 | 80% | — | — | +$5 | |
NO Noelaggie 0x9ac5…4e24 | 3 | 100% | — | — | +$2 | |
YI yisansan 0x4b38…442f | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$8 | |
AY ay-kom 0x8433…0c24 | 8 | 75% | — | — | -$390 | |
GO Gorilaapostador 0x9837…75f2 | 33 | 76% | — | — | -$628 | |
0X 0x2A0a44751892650e8618dd7d26113D6254be96eA-1768270283958 0x2a0a…96ea | 24 | 71% | — | — | -$207 | |
31 0x31e6…620f | 45 | 93% | — | — | +$23 | |
0X 0x87A279cEFa1fCd461eeBdA09fd7DB3FD34177ca1-1768705369900 0x87a2…7ca1 | 11 | 91% | — | — | +$3 | |
DJ DJS2255 0x152e…b99d | 131 | 75% | — | — | -$128 |
Markets they targeted
The wallets concentrated their bets in a handful of crypto markets, ranked here by the cluster's volume.
Methodology & limitations
How we detect these clusters, what the numbers mean, and what we do not claim.
How we detect it
Every Polymarket trade is read directly from the Polygon blockchain. We trace the USDC that funded each trading wallet back to its source address. Wallets sharing a single funder are grouped, their funder is screened against exchange / relayer / proxy-factory infrastructure, and only genuinely coordinated funders are reported as clusters. Their market outcomes are then aggregated from on-chain resolutions.
What the numbers mean
- Win rate — resolved bets won ÷ total resolved.
- Bayesian win rate — win rate shrunk toward 50% to correct for small samples; closer to raw as the sample grows.
- Confidence — how much the sample size supports the estimate.
- Z-score — standard deviations above a coin-flip baseline.
- By chance (p-value) — how often a result this strong would happen by luck.
Funding linkage
A “verified” funding link means the wallets received USDC from the same address and that address is not a known exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory. We currently trace direct (one-hop) funding; multi-hop and same-batch timing analysis are in progress.
What we do not claim
We do not assert the identity of any wallet owner, their intent, or that any law was broken. Shared funding plus an improbable win record is evidence worth examining — not a verdict. Figures are computed from on-chain data and update as markets resolve.