CrowdIntel30 crypto wallets: 64% win rate across 81658 resolved bets
30 Polymarket wallets, all funded from a single on-chain address, placed 81658 resolved bets on crypto markets and won 64% of them — a result you would expect less than 1 in 10,000 of the time by chance. They moved $3.5M in volume for $546K in net profit.
The evidence
Across 81658 resolved bets the cluster won 64% outright. Adjusting for sample size, the Bayesian win rate is 64% at 100% confidence, and the result sits 67.7 standard deviations above a 50/50 baseline. A coincidence of this size would occur less than 1 in 10,000 of the time.
How the wallets are linked
These wallets share the funder 0xf504…e222, but that address behaves like shared infrastructure (an exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory) rather than a single coordinator, so the "shared funding" link is NOT treated as evidence of coordination here.
Cluster highlights
Funding map
Funding linkage
The wallets
The cluster is made up of 30 wallets, each linked on-chain to the same funder. Individual records below.
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HD hd777 0x986b…bdc6 | 19414 | 80% | — | — | -$353.9K | |
RO robota 0xf7e8…7953 | 2956 | 51% | — | — | -$90.7K | |
C1 0xc181…0992 | 817 | 52% | — | — | -$8.0K | |
DO dongxiao 0x8712…08a1 | 40 | 100% | — | — | -$39.3K | |
T1 T11Faker 0x2ef2…7f72 | 249 | 48% | — | — | -$4.5K | |
OL olegs 0x6e2c…b7f8 | 2478 | 93% | — | — | -$44.4K | |
SH shabbysalta 0xf67e…a55c | 551 | 87% | — | — | +$8.3K | |
VI vinh6789 0xde6e…0169 | 1448 | 36% | — | — | -$35.3K | |
23 0x2352…154f | 688 | 85% | — | — | -$14.4K | |
0X 0x5B8E3A2Aa003Ef31bF6f60bb95A2650AeE182cDc-1771482435718 0x5b8e…2cdc | 29 | 45% | — | — | +$4.9K | |
KB kboss 0xbcb7…6f32 | 1207 | 99% | — | — | -$4.6K | |
VE venezuelain 0xdeb2…9aa8 | 1737 | 96% | — | — | +$5.8K | |
HE hersoan2025 0x6bf5…606b | 1763 | 81% | — | — | -$2.6K | |
AN andy56222 0x6f04…1817 | 1 | 0% | — | — | -$1.6K | |
23 0x239d…f8a5 | 506 | 70% | — | — | -$5.1K | |
KA kakarotto007 0xbb2e…ad55 | 294 | 57% | — | — | +$2.7K | |
TP tphhh 0xf915…8720 | 769 | 94% | — | — | +$157.9K | |
5D 0x5d95…b8db | 880 | 51% | — | — | +$108 | |
TH thenumbersmasonn 0x9066…fb7e | 1479 | 74% | — | — | +$19.8K | |
EA easyclap 0x71a7…6fcf | 4488 | 51% | — | — | +$837.6K | |
FE 0xfe6a…2a58 | 599 | 95% | — | — | -$10.9K | |
BL BlueCactus7 0x8a18…bc9d | 30642 | 50% | — | — | +$67.8K | |
GE getbipped 0x252d…c456 | 2867 | 50% | — | — | +$13.5K | |
DA darthgeek 0xfc14…2e9b | 996 | 94% | — | — | +$5.7K | |
LU lulufei888 0x2249…3005 | 1070 | 69% | — | — | -$2.7K | |
VI vip68 0x8d09…143f | 1443 | 69% | — | — | +$37.1K | |
SB sb1024 0x185e…63b4 | 402 | 67% | — | — | -$3.2K | |
GU gugu 0xf5a4…8df4 | 140 | 99% | — | — | +$3.0K | |
KM KM888 0x9f0d…bcc4 | 76 | 80% | — | — | +$7.0K | |
MU mulpodsa85 0x2e31…d5fd | 1629 | 52% | — | — | -$3.6K |
Markets they targeted
The wallets concentrated their bets in a handful of crypto markets, ranked here by the cluster's volume.
Methodology & limitations
How we detect these clusters, what the numbers mean, and what we do not claim.
How we detect it
Every Polymarket trade is read directly from the Polygon blockchain. We trace the USDC that funded each trading wallet back to its source address. Wallets sharing a single funder are grouped, their funder is screened against exchange / relayer / proxy-factory infrastructure, and only genuinely coordinated funders are reported as clusters. Their market outcomes are then aggregated from on-chain resolutions.
What the numbers mean
- Win rate — resolved bets won ÷ total resolved.
- Bayesian win rate — win rate shrunk toward 50% to correct for small samples; closer to raw as the sample grows.
- Confidence — how much the sample size supports the estimate.
- Z-score — standard deviations above a coin-flip baseline.
- By chance (p-value) — how often a result this strong would happen by luck.
Funding linkage
A “verified” funding link means the wallets received USDC from the same address and that address is not a known exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory. We currently trace direct (one-hop) funding; multi-hop and same-batch timing analysis are in progress.
What we do not claim
We do not assert the identity of any wallet owner, their intent, or that any law was broken. Shared funding plus an improbable win record is evidence worth examining — not a verdict. Figures are computed from on-chain data and update as markets resolve.