CrowdIntel30 crypto wallets: 93% win rate across 169 resolved bets
30 Polymarket wallets, all funded from a single on-chain address, placed 169 resolved bets on crypto markets and won 93% of them — a result you would expect less than 1 in 10,000 of the time by chance. They moved $14K in volume for -$352 in net profit.
The evidence
Across 169 resolved bets the cluster won 93% outright. Adjusting for sample size, the Bayesian win rate is 92% at 89% confidence, and the result sits 10.6 standard deviations above a 50/50 baseline. A coincidence of this size would occur less than 1 in 10,000 of the time.
How the wallets are linked
These wallets share the funder 0x2fc6…befe, but that address behaves like shared infrastructure (an exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory) rather than a single coordinator, so the "shared funding" link is NOT treated as evidence of coordination here.
Cluster highlights
Funding map
The wallets
The cluster is made up of 30 wallets, each linked on-chain to the same funder. Individual records below.
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Capyb4r4 0x26e7…21dc | 70 | 83% | — | — | +$35 | |
0X 0xF58d648D41bB6D8408C7ACF30fa69a75ad862F69-1763923803123 0xf58d…2f69 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$11 | |
0X 0x3E205E361A35FD8324Ccbc9BBEe20438dc9A56f1-1763923828807 0x3e20…56f1 | 5 | 100% | — | — | -$11 | |
0X 0x3ec77d15312Ca87D46Fd44e42b396FC652DdA9e1-1763923871737 0x3ec7…a9e1 | 3 | 100% | — | — | +$4 | |
0X 0xF9A9C1fdD2Af912117828949142aFD2810bcb66a-1763923880587 0xf9a9…b66a | 4 | 100% | — | — | -$3 | |
0X 0x15C521427460573Dae2Ffd0f1C99Eea5080BC5C6-1763923614486 0x15c5…c5c6 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$62 | |
0X 0xB7fb68a682e549C9427d46460CeF0Bd9534996d5-1763923892869 0xb7fb…96d5 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$11 | |
0X 0x0c084192521d8ec8a867106aD29ab247D6Ce45ff-1763923809123 0x0c08…45ff | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$12 | |
0X 0x60F1c684C7bB4f8dc8bc87cddDf075e9195C7E9f-1763923842936 0x60f1…7e9f | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$7 | |
0X 0x74e4D140252B672CC36c1d4428b2212a5972afDd-1763923868265 0x74e4…afdd | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$2 | |
0X 0xD6FDCC271Da0A2D88f6b91A8e854F3e729723D37-1763923851660 0xd6fd…3d37 | 4 | 100% | — | — | +$5 | |
0X 0xDe629AaD0968c6928F36DE8c06F8A9610031Dda4-1763923859084 0xde62…dda4 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$15 | |
0X 0x775a6961E3E6b60735a789a44555834B6fc962A4-1763923812971 0x775a…62a4 | 4 | 100% | — | — | -$4 | |
0X 0xab8052416A25Be59CCAE50118C2eFE73170f475f-1763923857373 0xab80…475f | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$2 | |
0X 0x3FD0C5650A80890bbf2aD65d6E74A278C5f8E5f0-1763923862610 0x3fd0…e5f0 | 4 | 100% | — | — | +$7 | |
0X 0x788883E47a2BEE7509e44D37FD856D72deBf5946-1763923909143 0x7888…5946 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$32 | |
0X 0xAa42826EE789dF975A86c754D58926fe52D88A87-1763923898076 0xaa42…8a87 | 4 | 100% | — | — | -$49 | |
0X 0xAA36c3d41E3d6080bc4431302fa239Dd7655E95e-1763923891179 0xaa36…e95e | 4 | 100% | — | — | +$13 | |
0X 0x786eC607204D2C464DA42901409f62FA457F68b9-1763923836121 0x786e…68b9 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$5 | |
0X 0xCE49AED1e8a3Ec0044812C875A0301f70B07836A-1763923832701 0xce49…836a | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$7 | |
0X 0x92eF899A52847979D4a552da53e0dD7034E2C693-1763923639515 0x92ef…c693 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$1 | |
0X 0x31fD12dfCe061402903Fa670476931ab1F5EfCd7-1763923844734 0x31fd…fcd7 | 4 | 100% | — | — | -$21 | |
0X 0x63E73665A84eC3067C6E3Bc2acb473bF22094C14-1763923889468 0x63e7…4c14 | 3 | 100% | — | — | +$15 | |
0X 0x0444f0c27D12eCb1A7dC3FE38C631D4a113066DC-1763923821871 0x0444…66dc | 3 | 100% | — | — | +$14 | |
0X 0xcB3194e56373c503e8573523cc95DCe6c8EDF5E8-1763923616199 0xcb31…f5e8 | 4 | 100% | — | — | -$78 | |
0X 0x0923F6EBf80fADC663B5C97D4469246e2802761E-1763923610941 0x0923…761e | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$81 | |
0X 0x22D62a7aB334412dcA4241FeC5a7512813553939-1763923807019 0x22d6…3939 | 4 | 100% | — | — | -$1 | |
0X 0x1a331d8b27Db38B7D2a5e1E8E14e4a4449889beA-1763923628707 0x1a33…9bea | 4 | 100% | — | — | -$5 | |
0X 0xF8283558F757b3a863FA7460c2C6E9416D96e223-1763923870016 0xf828…e223 | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$16 | |
0X 0xA4F07c54c3d2619d1e19960C33F127dF56da2D4d-1763923907147 0xa4f0…2d4d | 3 | 100% | — | — | -$11 |
Markets they targeted
The wallets concentrated their bets in a handful of crypto markets, ranked here by the cluster's volume.
Methodology & limitations
How we detect these clusters, what the numbers mean, and what we do not claim.
How we detect it
Every Polymarket trade is read directly from the Polygon blockchain. We trace the USDC that funded each trading wallet back to its source address. Wallets sharing a single funder are grouped, their funder is screened against exchange / relayer / proxy-factory infrastructure, and only genuinely coordinated funders are reported as clusters. Their market outcomes are then aggregated from on-chain resolutions.
What the numbers mean
- Win rate — resolved bets won ÷ total resolved.
- Bayesian win rate — win rate shrunk toward 50% to correct for small samples; closer to raw as the sample grows.
- Confidence — how much the sample size supports the estimate.
- Z-score — standard deviations above a coin-flip baseline.
- By chance (p-value) — how often a result this strong would happen by luck.
Funding linkage
A “verified” funding link means the wallets received USDC from the same address and that address is not a known exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory. We currently trace direct (one-hop) funding; multi-hop and same-batch timing analysis are in progress.
What we do not claim
We do not assert the identity of any wallet owner, their intent, or that any law was broken. Shared funding plus an improbable win record is evidence worth examining — not a verdict. Figures are computed from on-chain data and update as markets resolve.