CrowdIntel16 geopolitics wallets: 83% win rate across 465 resolved bets
16 Polymarket wallets, all funded from a single on-chain address, placed 465 resolved bets on geopolitics markets and won 83% of them — a result you would expect less than 1 in 10,000 of the time by chance. They moved $1.4M in volume for $316K in net profit.
The evidence
Across 465 resolved bets the cluster won 83% outright. Adjusting for sample size, the Bayesian win rate is 83% at 96% confidence, and the result sits 13.3 standard deviations above a 50/50 baseline. A coincidence of this size would occur less than 1 in 10,000 of the time.
How the wallets are linked
These wallets share the funder 0x0b5c…db2a, but that address behaves like shared infrastructure (an exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory) rather than a single coordinator, so the "shared funding" link is NOT treated as evidence of coordination here.
Cluster highlights
Funding map
The wallets
The cluster is made up of 16 wallets, each linked on-chain to the same funder. Individual records below.
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA Kangtamqf 0xda5f…2e9b | 122 | 75% | — | — | -$86.4K | |
JH JhonAlexanderHinestroza 0x44c5…8d45 | 30 | 87% | — | — | +$330.4K | |
E6 0xe6f3…2568 | 26 | 85% | — | — | -$1.8K | |
FE 0xfe72…f18c | 8 | 88% | — | — | +$6.8K | |
WA Waguri 0xeda8…4567 | 16 | 81% | — | — | -$861 | |
TH TheBrainiac 0x61af…aa01 | 31 | 90% | — | — | -$1.7K | |
0X 0x53d3e5320bfD5fD42629c0C0d0De160Bcf19ba87-1764987546075 0x53d3…ba87 | 7 | 86% | — | — | -$14.2K | |
JA JasonPunos 0x47ae…ee94 | 4 | 100% | — | — | +$10.2K | |
DE Dex777 0xe9cd…9a4c | 28 | 82% | — | — | -$863 | |
TO Toncar16 0x4158…ce9f | 4 | 75% | — | — | +$71.2K | |
UN unsecured7308 0xe0d9…8483 | 37 | 92% | — | — | +$2.8K | |
22 0x22b0…ef31 | 8 | 75% | — | — | -$1.2K | |
SK skazer 0xf766…c644 | 119 | 85% | — | — | -$324 | |
DA 0xda14…1627 | 4 | 75% | — | — | +$1.7K | |
GA gatschmahala 0xb626…2138 | 17 | 88% | — | — | -$279 | |
DU DuckVagabond 0x5f42…5b96 | 4 | 75% | — | — | +$262 |
Markets they targeted
The wallets concentrated their bets in a handful of geopolitics markets, ranked here by the cluster's volume.
Methodology & limitations
How we detect these clusters, what the numbers mean, and what we do not claim.
How we detect it
Every Polymarket trade is read directly from the Polygon blockchain. We trace the USDC that funded each trading wallet back to its source address. Wallets sharing a single funder are grouped, their funder is screened against exchange / relayer / proxy-factory infrastructure, and only genuinely coordinated funders are reported as clusters. Their market outcomes are then aggregated from on-chain resolutions.
What the numbers mean
- Win rate — resolved bets won ÷ total resolved.
- Bayesian win rate — win rate shrunk toward 50% to correct for small samples; closer to raw as the sample grows.
- Confidence — how much the sample size supports the estimate.
- Z-score — standard deviations above a coin-flip baseline.
- By chance (p-value) — how often a result this strong would happen by luck.
Funding linkage
A “verified” funding link means the wallets received USDC from the same address and that address is not a known exchange, relayer, or the Polymarket proxy factory. We currently trace direct (one-hop) funding; multi-hop and same-batch timing analysis are in progress.
What we do not claim
We do not assert the identity of any wallet owner, their intent, or that any law was broken. Shared funding plus an improbable win record is evidence worth examining — not a verdict. Figures are computed from on-chain data and update as markets resolve.