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Investigations
CrowdIntel/ dossier
Issue №112 · Apr 18 · 2026
◆ Cluster intel · geopolitics
3 wallets.
One hand.
3 wallets funded by 0x4b1a...591b placed 18 bets on geopolitics markets. 15 of 18 resolved bets won (83%). Average entry odds: 50%. Total volume: $117K. Probability of this occurring by chance: 0.377%.
Bayesian win rate
82%
Confidence
47%
Z-score
3.78σ
Cluster PnL
+$26.7K
◆ Cluster highlights
Bucked consensus
0 wins
avg bet $6.5K
◆ Funding map
◆ Wallet roster
| Wallet | Bets | Win rate | CC wins | Streak | PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BS-JJTeam | 3 | 100% | +$28.9K | |||
| 0x4669EB7eb21D567cd29C10A4A7A265a426b199c0-1772798146626 | 4 | 100% | -$309 | |||
| 0x1bE0DC59408A5f8c635af0104a30688A738f8892-1770051727041 | 11 | 82% | -$1.8K |
◆ Markets touched
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
C
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs
W
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
N
Nuggets vs. Spurs
U
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?