How-to guides
How to track a Polymarket whale
Use watchlists and alerts to follow a specific Polymarket wallet in real time. Practical workflow for copying, researching, or betting against a known trader.
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If you've identified a Polymarket wallet worth following — either because you're copying them, researching them, or trying to fade them — CrowdIntel gives you three ways to stay current.
Option 1 — Follow the wallet (fastest)
From any wallet dossier page, click the Follow button in the header. This adds the wallet to your personal watchlist and makes its trades appear in your dashboard feed.
What you get:
- The wallet's trades surface in your dashboard timeline within ~30 seconds of the on-chain confirmation.
- Wallet profile bookmarked — one click from your sidebar.
- Notification dot in the header when the wallet places a new bet (while you're logged in and viewing the app).
Option 2 — Add to a list (organised)
If you're tracking multiple wallets around a theme — a political-betting cluster, a crypto sharp group, a competitor in a category — lists let you group them.
- Go to /lists. Create a new list (name + optional icon/color).
- Visit each wallet's dossier, click Add to list, select your list.
- Open your list page to see aggregate stats and combined timeline across all wallets.
Lists are useful because the sum of a group's behaviour often tells you more than any individual wallet.
Option 3 — Telegram alerts (planned)
Real-time Telegram alerts for watchlisted wallets are on the roadmap. When a wallet on your watchlist places a trade scoring above a threshold you set, you'll get a Telegram message. Not shipped yet — check back or follow @CrowdIntelXYZ for the ship notice.
What to watch for on a tracked wallet
Once you have a wallet watchlisted, the questions to keep asking as it trades:
New entries
- Size — is this trade in line with the wallet's typical bet size, or a notable deviation?
- Timing — did the trade land before, during, or after a known news moment in the category?
- Odds at entry — did the wallet enter at a cheap price (high odds against the outcome) or a short price (near-certain)?
New exits
Whales exit for many reasons: they want cash, they want to rebalance, they're running a hedge, or they've lost conviction. Exits are harder to read than entries. The rule of thumb: entries are signal, exits are noise unless they're repeated and consistent.
Consistency check
Every few weeks, revisit the dossier and ask: has this wallet's shrinkage-adjusted win rate held up? A wallet at 80% last month that's now 60% after 40 more resolved bets was probably benefiting from a favourable regime. The Bayesian estimator is honest about this — raw win rate might look fine but the shrinkage will have moved.
Copy-trading a whale (a note)
Tracking isn't copying. If you want to mechanically copy a whale's trades, read Copy trading Polymarket responsibly first — the mechanical trap is that by the time you see a whale's trade, the price has already moved. You enter at a worse price than they did. That slippage eats most of the theoretical edge.
Common patterns by whale type
Different whales leave different tracks. Useful to know which kind you're following:
- Political staffer / industry insider — narrow category edge, small-to-medium sizes, spikes around news cycles.
- Full-time sharp — broad category coverage, consistent sizes, rarely spikes, excellent long-term shrinkage-adjusted win rate.
- Degen-plus — volatile win rate, massive sizes, strong category concentration but with big drawdowns.
- Infra / mm wallet — high volume but flat PnL (they're making money on spread, not direction). Usually not interesting to track.
What to do next
- Find new whales to follow — ranked leaderboard
- How to find insiders — the research workflow
- Copy trading Polymarket — pitfalls and what actually works
FAQ
How fresh is the data?
Trades land on CrowdIntel within ~30 seconds of confirmation on Polygon. The indexer runs continuously. There's no cache in front of wallet dossiers — every page load is live data.
Can I track a wallet anonymously?
Browsing is free and unauthenticated. Adding a wallet to a persistent watchlist requires login (via Clerk, email or Google). No credit card or wallet connect required.
How many wallets can I watchlist?
No cap on the free tier. If that changes, we'll update this doc.