Live
Investigations
Back to Investigations
CrowdIntel/ dossier
Issue №115 · Apr 21 · 2026
◆ Cluster intel · geopolitics

4 wallets.
One hand.

Funded by0x9810…7630· 1751 bets · $74.3K routed

Iran geopolitics ring funded by 0x9810...7630: 4 wallets, 107/126 resolved iran-market wins (85% win rate), $74K routed. Spearheaded by 0xc021...1fa8 — 20/21 at 95% WR, $68K clean. Top kill: "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?" — 12/12 bets, $55K profit on one market. p-value < 0.01%.

Wallets
4
Win rate
55%
Volume
$74.3K
By chance
<0.01%
Bayesian win rate
55%
Confidence
99%
Z-score
2.91σ
Cluster PnL
+$1.1M
◆ Cluster highlightsDerived from wallet roster
Bucked consensus
0 wins
avg bet $42
◆ Funding mapEdges = funding tx · center = funder
◆ Wallet roster4 linked · click to open dossier
WalletBetsWin rateCC winsStreakPnL
0xc021…1fa82090%+$430.1K
lava-lava20253%+$623.7K
SusanWarrenHR59445%+$67.6K
BTCisaHarshMistress93562%+$6.0K
◆ Markets touchedTop 6 by volume
W
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?
$31.5K routed· 42% of cluster
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?
$23.5K routed· 32% of cluster
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?
$22.0K routed· 30% of cluster
U
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
$8.5K routed· 11% of cluster
U
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
$4.0K routed· 5% of cluster
I
Iran leadership change by March 13?
$3.5K routed· 5% of cluster
crowdintel.xyz/investigations/115@CrowdIntelXYZ
Live
Beta
···v0.1.0